SKYX Platforms Corp. (SKYX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

SKYX Platforms sells lighting and heating products, mainly in the United States. It markets its own plug-and-play ceiling fixture and smart-home technology, and since April 2023 it also sells home lighting, ceiling fans and other home furnishings from third parties. Revenue has grown from about $58.8 million in 2023 to $86.3 million in 2024 and $92.0 million in 2025, and was $47.4 million in the first half of 2026 versus $43.2 million a year earlier. The business has not yet produced cash for its owners. Operating cash flow was negative in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025 (about $13.0 million, $18.3 million and $13.3 million used). Once we remove working-capital swings, treat the roughly $13.5 million a year of stock-based pay as a real cost, and deduct maintenance capital spending, owner earnings were about negative $35.2 million in 2023, negative $30.5 million in 2024 and negative $29.2 million in 2025, or roughly $0.27 to $0.40 per share lost each year. Net losses continued through the first half of 2026 at about $17.5 million. Losses have narrowed only slightly, and the business has funded itself by issuing shares and convertible notes, including about $29.3 million of net proceeds from a January 2026 stock sale. The company's own filing says its liquidity was enough to remove substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern, but only after counting that January raise, and it acknowledges a history of operating losses. Our approach values only what the business has already shown it can earn, or growth that is contracted or a proven repeating process. Revenue growth has been real, but it has not translated into positive owner earnings in any year we could measure, and we found no signed contract, demonstrated margin record or other evidenced driver that turns the cash flow positive. Expected adoption of the plug-and-play technology and future profitability are hoped-for outcomes, not established facts, so they are left out of all three cases. Bear, base and bull are therefore each valued at $0 per share. In the bear case the company keeps needing new equity to fund its losses and existing shareholders are diluted further; in the base and bull cases we cannot point to an evidenced path to positive owner earnings, so they are also worth nothing on this method. What would make this wrong: if the company demonstrates several consecutive years of positive operating cash flow after stock compensation, the analysis would change materially. Cash-flow accounting also includes non-cash charges, and the company's non-GAAP measures were not used here. Because the earnings stream is negative and no value can be built from evidenced drivers, no positive margin-of-safety price is supported on this method.