Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Uber runs a ride-hailing (Mobility) and food/grocery delivery (Delivery) marketplace, plus a smaller freight business. In 2025 it handled 13.6 billion trips, had 202 million monthly active consumers and booked $193 billion of gross bookings, producing revenue of $52.0 billion (up 18%). Revenue by region in 2025: United States and Canada $26.5 billion, Europe, Middle East and Africa $16.4 billion, Asia Pacific $5.9 billion, Latin America $3.3 billion. How we measured earnings. We start from operating cash flow ($10.1 billion in 2025) and remove three things: (1) the cash boost from working capital, which was $2.2 billion in 2025 and is driven mostly by accrued insurance reserves (insurance costs booked ahead of claims paid); (2) stock-based compensation of $1.8 billion, which we treat as a real cost; and (3) the part of capital spending that maintains the business rather than expands it (about $0.3 billion). That leaves owner earnings of roughly $5.8 billion, or $2.72 per share, in 2025. On the same basis the figure was $1.29 per share in 2024 and $0.62 in 2023. Earlier years were losses ($(0.83) in 2022, $(1.87) in 2021). Net income of $10.1 billion in 2025 is not a guide to earning power: it includes a $5.0 billion tax benefit from releasing a valuation allowance on Netherlands deferred tax assets, which involves no cash. We also do not count Uber's minority stakes in other companies (such as Didi) as separate value. Earnings level used. Because the business only turned solidly cash-generative in 2023, we anchor on 2024 and 2025 together (about $2.00 per share) rather than on the loss years or on the 2025 peak alone. First-half 2026 operating cash flow of $5.2 billion versus $4.9 billion a year earlier, with fewer shares outstanding, supports that the 2025 level is holding. We then lower the level to about $1.85 in the base case because Uber paid only $345 million of cash income tax in 2025 while shielded by $3.2 billion of loss carryforwards (down from $4.3 billion a year earlier); as those run down, cash taxes should rise. Growth check. Owner earnings per share grew about 111% in 2025 (from $1.29 to $2.72), but that came from a business just crossing into profitability. The base case assumes just 5% in year 1, well below that, and does not extrapolate the jump. Base case ($30.30 per share): earnings of about $1.85 grow 5% a year for five years and 3% a year for the next five (reaching about $2.74), after which they decline 5% a year. We credit modest growth because Uber has grown revenue every year since 2020 and has grown gross bookings 19% in 2025 through its own cash flow; we do not credit market expansion, new products, or margin gains. The post-year-10 decline reflects that we cannot name a source of durable earnings beyond the current network, while the filing notes Alphabet (Waymo), Amazon (Zoox) and Tesla are developing autonomous vehicles that may compete with Uber, and Waymo already runs a commercial ride-hailing fleet on its own platform. Bear case ($12.30 per share): the tax shield is fully used up and insurance and competitive pressure cap earnings at about $1.40 per share. Earnings stay flat for three years, then fall 6% a year for seven years and 8% a year after that, as autonomous competitors take business in the markets where Uber is strongest. Uber carries $10.6 billion of debt, and its insurance costs are higher in the United States and Canada than elsewhere, which we treat as pressure in this case. Bull case ($46.70 per share): Uber's own record continues, with earnings of about $1.90 growing 10% a year for five years and 6% for the next five, well below the roughly 18-20% revenue and trip growth just delivered, and then declining 3% a year. What would make this wrong: autonomous vehicles arriving faster than we assume (lower), accrued insurance claims eventually costing more cash than reserves suggest (lower), or cash taxes staying low for longer (higher). We could not reconcile the reserves build in insurance from filings alone, so we removed it from earnings rather than count it as recurring cash. The most recent filing on record is the quarterly report filed August 2026, so the data is current.