Maplebear Inc. (CART) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) runs an online grocery marketplace connecting shoppers, retailers and advertisers, with sales largely in the United States and Canada. Revenue grew from $3,042M in 2023 to $3,378M in 2024 and $3,742M in 2025, and orders rose 15% in 2025 to 338.8 million. In the first half of 2026 revenue was $2,062M versus $1,811M a year earlier. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove the swings from working capital (mainly growing receivables, some of which are slow-collecting EBT SNAP transactions), deduct stock-based compensation as a real cost ($352M in 2025), and deduct only the capital spending needed to maintain the business (about $55M a year of roughly $61M total). On that basis owner earnings were about $548M in 2024 ($1.89 per share) and $625M in 2025 ($2.24 per share), a gain of about 18% per share. We use only these two years: 2023 is distorted by $2,756M of stock compensation booked when the IPO triggered vesting, and earlier years predate the current share base. Receivables have grown every year, so we anchor on about $2.10 per share, at the lower end of the range, rather than the latest and highest figure. The company has also bought back stock: diluted shares fell from 279.6M in 2025 to about 249M in the second quarter of 2026, and we use the lower count. The $60M FTC settlement over marketing and Instacart+ membership practices was accrued in 2025 and paid in January 2026; it is a one-time cost and is not in our recurring earnings level. Base case ($23.60 per share). Owner earnings stay flat at about $2.10 per share for 15 years, then fade to zero over the following 10 years. Year-one growth is assumed at 0% against about 18% actual growth in 2025, so nothing is credited beyond today's level. We give no credit for further order growth, new markets or margin gains, because none is contracted or locked in; the flat level rests on the company's five-year record of growing orders and revenue and its position with retailers and shoppers. Bear case ($9.30). The filing lists Amazon, Kroger, Target and Walmart as operators of their own advertising platforms, some of which are also Instacart retailers, and the FTC order narrows how memberships can be marketed. We assume owner earnings fall to $1.40 per share within three years and then decline steadily to zero by year 15. The company holds its cash rather than significant debt burdens in our model, so no balance-sheet adjustment is made. Bull case ($32.80). Owner earnings settle at about $2.60 per share, close to the 2025 level on the reduced share count and supported by first-half 2026 operating cash flow of $762M versus $501M, held for 20 years and then faded over 10. What would make this wrong: a loss of a large retailer or advertiser relationship, further regulatory action on membership practices, or working capital continuing to absorb cash faster than we assume. Note that first-half 2026 cash flow was strong, but we did not raise the level on a single half-year.