KEYCORP /NEW/ (KEY) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Owner earnings (Net Income minus SBC) per diluted share, FY2014-2025 from 10-K/XBRL data: $0.98 (2014) rising irregularly to a cycle peak of $2.63 (2021), then $1.93 (2022) and $0.91 (2023) as the 2023 regional-bank deposit-flight/rate-shock episode compressed margins, a LOSS year in 2024 (-$0.28/sh) driven by KeyCorp's large AFS bond-portfolio repositioning charge and NIM trough, before recovering to $1.53 (2025). 2025 OE/share is also diluted by the ~19% increase in diluted shares outstanding (933M in 2023 to 1,108M in 2025) from the 2024 capital raise involving Scotiabank. H1 2026 run-rate annualizes to roughly $1.78/sh, and Q1 2026 earnings-call commentary (management targeting >3% NIM by year-end 2026, 56% cumulative deposit beta, loan growth reaccelerating to 2-4% overall/6-8% commercial, credit quality described as strong with de minimis NPLs) points to continued post-stress normalization. The 10-K shows no going-concern language; CET1 was 11.78% at 12/31/2025 vs. a 7.70% regulatory minimum-with-buffer, but the 10-K discloses no explicit internal CET1 target range, so no excess-capital-per-share add-on was made (omitted rather than estimated). Scenarios (two-stage DCF, 10yr explicit + Gordon terminal, divided by diluted shares): Bear starts at $1.00/sh OE (near the 2023 trough) with 1% growth, 1.5% terminal growth, 12% discount, reflecting renewed credit-cycle/NIM-compression risk. Base starts at $1.55/sh (~2025 actual) with 4% growth tapering to 2.5% terminal and 9.5% discount, reflecting continued NIM recovery and modest loan growth on the larger post-Scotiabank share base. Bull starts at $1.80/sh with 6% growth tapering to 3% terminal and 8.5% discount, reflecting a return toward the $2+/sh years (2018-2019, 2021-2022) without assuming another windfall like 2021. This yields bear $9.36, base $25.36, bull $42.58 per share. The margin-of-safety price of $16.50 applies a ~35% discount to base, wider than a flat 30% given KeyCorp's demonstrated NIM/AFS-portfolio sensitivity to rate shocks (2023-2024 episode) and residual dilution overhang from the Scotiabank stake, even though the episode now appears resolved (well-capitalized, NIM improving toward >3%). Data caveats: bank-convention owner earnings (NI minus SBC, no capex/CFO adjustment) per project methodology; XBRL history cleanly covers FY2014-2025 plus partial 2026 quarters; no excess regulatory-capital add-on because the 10-K did not disclose an explicit CET1 target; current price sourced from Yahoo Finance reflects an early-August 2026 snapshot, not exactly the 8/27/2026 as-of date.