American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

American Healthcare REIT owns senior housing, skilled nursing, outpatient medical buildings and related healthcare property. Most of the money comes from operating the properties directly rather than collecting rent: resident fees and services were $2,094.5 million of $2,260.1 million total revenue in 2025. Its integrated senior health campuses (about 45.3% of the portfolio by purchase price) are run by the Trilogy Manager, and the company keeps the upside and the downside of their operating results. How we measured earnings. We start from cash generated by operations and remove swings in receivables, payables and similar timing items. We then subtract stock compensation and the part of capital spending needed just to keep the buildings competitive. Growth spending is not charged. On that basis, owner earnings per share were about $0.98 in 2025 and $0.93 in 2024. Earlier years are not comparable: the share count rose from about 66 million in 2023 to about 167 million (weighted) in 2025 after the February 2024 listing and later offerings, and 188.0 million shares were outstanding in February 2026. We anchored on 2024 and 2025 only, at about $0.95 per share, because that is the period with the current capital structure. Owner earnings per share rose about 5% in 2025; we start the base case below that rate. Base case: about $19 per share. Owner earnings per share grow 3% a year for five years and 1.5% a year for the next five, then stay flat. We credit modest growth because resident fees and services have risen every year (18%, 13% and 11% in 2022, 2023 and 2024-2025 steps respectively, from $1,412 million in 2022 to $2,095 million in 2025) and combined senior housing occupancy was 89.8% at year-end, with resident agreements generally one year or less so rates reprice. We hold growth well below the recent pace because the company reports continuing wage and supply inflation. We do not credit further acquisitions, development or margin gains, and we do not credit the 2025 purchases (about $884 million of real estate) as extra earnings, since only part of that year's benefit is visible in the numbers. We keep earnings flat after year ten because the company owns nearly all its land and buildings outright and our earnings figure already deducts maintenance spending. Bear case: about $11 per share. Owner earnings stay at the 2025 total of about $163 million spread over today's 188 million shares (about $0.87 per share), with no growth, for 25 years, after which we assume nothing. The named concerns: real estate impairments of $45.8 million in 2024 and $49.9 million in 2025, showing that some assets are losing value; about $1.54 billion of debt, including $550 million of credit facility and term loans at a weighted 5.01% and $159.7 million of mortgages due in 2026; heavy reliance on a single manager for the campuses; and the Chief Executive Officer being on medical leave with the Chairman serving as interim CEO. Bull case: about $23 per share. Owner earnings grow 5% a year for ten years, matching what was achieved per share in 2025, then stay flat. The support is the campus expansion already under way (campus spending was $93.7 million in 2025) and the full-year effect of 2025 acquisitions. We do not assume anything beyond the demonstrated rate. What would make us wrong: labor costs rising faster than resident rates, occupancy falling below the 89.8% level, or the company issuing shares (including shares under forward sale agreements running to May 2027) at prices that do not add earnings per share. We could not separate acquired from organic growth in resident fees from the filings we used, so the growth rates above are deliberately modest. Interest expense fell from about $109 million on mortgages and credit facilities in 2024 to about $77 million in 2025 as debt was repaid with offering proceeds; we did not credit further savings. This is the first analysis of the company.