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NATIONAL HEALTH INVESTORS INC (NHI) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$33.04 Updated
$41.30 $93.00
bear $41.30 base $64.68 bull $93.00 margin of safety $33.04 market price* $64.86
National Health Investors owns senior housing and medical properties, most leased to operators on long-term triple-net terms. Owner earnings, measured as adjusted funds from operations per share, compounded only about 1% a year over the past decade and still sit roughly 9% below their 2020 peak, after an operator credit cycle forced rent resets, lease transitions and an 18% dividend cut. Coverage and occupancy are improving and leverage is conservative, but growth depends on issuing shares to fund acquisitions at thin spreads, the three largest tenants supply over a third of revenue, and a shift toward operating senior housing directly adds earnings volatility. The bear case holds owner earnings flat indefinitely at an 11.5% required return; the base case assumes 2.25% growth at 9.5%, corroborated by capitalising current property income; the bull case assumes 4.5% growth at 8.5%. We anchor on the bear case rather than the base, because the operator credit risk that defined the last decade is intrinsic to this industry rather than a one-off. Confidence is only moderate, so we take a further fifth off that bear figure - roughly twenty percent below the bear case and about half the base case.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $4.82 ▼
REIT basis: AFFO per diluted share, defined as company-reported Normalized Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) LESS the non-cash share-based compensation that NHI adds back in its own FAD reconciliation, so SBC is charged as a real economic cost. FY2025: Normalized FAD $232,149,000 less SBC $5,576,000 = $226,573,000 of owner earnings, divided by weighted average diluted shares of 47,051,763 = $4.82 per diluted share. Source: NHI FY2025 Form 10-K non-GAAP reconciliation table (NAREIT FFO / Normalized FFO / Normalized FAD); reconciliation re-added independently and ties to reported Normalized FFO of $231,210,000 and NAREIT FFO of $218,663,000. Caveat: the standard CFO-minus-capex-minus-SBC formula is not meaningful for this issuer. FY2025 CFO was $236,563,000 against tagged capex of $347,031,000, which is acquisition and development spend, not maintenance; that literal formula produces negative $116,044,000, or negative $2.47 per share, which has no economic meaning for a REIT. True recurring/maintenance capex is de minimis (FY2025 SHOP recurring capex $1,937,000 plus equity-method capex $671,000, about $0.06 per share) and is already deducted inside FAD. This figure is levered and post-interest, so no net-debt bridge is applied to it. It does not tie to reported diluted EPS of $3.02; the gap is real estate depreciation and amortization of $78,772,000 net of straight-line rent adjustments and gains on sale, which is expected on an AFFO basis.
2024 $4.54 ▼
REIT basis: AFFO per diluted share, defined as company-reported Normalized Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) LESS the non-cash share-based compensation that NHI adds back in its own FAD reconciliation, so SBC is charged as a real economic cost. FY2024: Normalized FAD $204,210,000 less SBC $4,182,000 = $200,028,000 of owner earnings, divided by weighted average diluted shares of 44,102,636 = $4.54 per diluted share. Source: NHI FY2025 Form 10-K non-GAAP reconciliation table (NAREIT FFO / Normalized FFO / Normalized FAD). Caveat: the standard CFO-minus-capex-minus-SBC formula is not meaningful for this issuer because its tagged capex is acquisition and development spend ($180,209,000 in FY2024), not maintenance; on that literal basis FY2024 computes to roughly $0.53 per share and swings deeply negative in heavier acquisition years. True recurring/maintenance capex is de minimis (FY2024 SHOP recurring capex $1,948,000 plus equity-method capex $293,000) and is already deducted inside FAD. This figure is levered and post-interest, so no net-debt bridge is applied to it.
2023 $4.22 ▼
REIT basis: AFFO per diluted share, defined as company-reported Normalized Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) LESS the non-cash share-based compensation that NHI adds back in its own FAD reconciliation, so SBC is charged as a real economic cost. FY2023: Normalized FAD $187,841,000 less SBC $4,605,000 = $183,236,000 of owner earnings, divided by weighted average diluted shares of 43,389,466 = $4.22 per diluted share. Source: NHI FY2025 Form 10-K non-GAAP reconciliation table (NAREIT FFO / Normalized FFO / Normalized FAD), which presents FY2025, FY2024 and FY2023. Caveat: the standard CFO-minus-capex-minus-SBC formula is not meaningful for this issuer because its tagged capex is acquisition and development spend, not maintenance; on that literal basis FY2023 computes to roughly $3.01 per share and swings deeply negative in heavy acquisition years. True recurring/maintenance capex is de minimis (FY2023 SHOP recurring capex $1,845,000 plus equity-method capex $210,000) and is already deducted inside FAD. This figure is levered and post-interest, so no net-debt bridge is applied to it. FY2023 is the low point of the 10-year series.
2022 $4.30 ▼
REIT basis: AFFO per diluted share, defined as company-reported Normalized Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) LESS the non-cash share-based compensation that NHI adds back in its own FAD reconciliation, so SBC is charged as a real economic cost. FY2022: Normalized FAD $201,031,000 less SBC $8,613,000 = $192,418,000 of owner earnings, divided by weighted average diluted shares of 44,794,236 = $4.30 per diluted share. Source: NHI FY2022 Form 10-K non-GAAP reconciliation table (NAREIT FFO / Normalized FFO / Normalized FAD). Caveat: the standard CFO-minus-capex-minus-SBC formula is not meaningful for this issuer because its tagged capex is acquisition and development spend, not maintenance; on that literal basis FY2022 computes to roughly $3.65 per share only because 2022 was an unusually light investment year, and it swings deeply negative in heavy acquisition years. True recurring/maintenance capex is de minimis and is already deducted inside FAD. This figure is levered and post-interest, so no net-debt bridge is applied to it. FY2022 was the trough of the senior-housing operator credit cycle (Bickford moved to cash-basis revenue recognition).
2021 $4.40 ▼
REIT basis: AFFO per diluted share, defined as company-reported Normalized Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) LESS the non-cash share-based compensation that NHI adds back in its own FAD reconciliation, so SBC is charged as a real economic cost. FY2021: Normalized FAD $209,473,000 less SBC $8,415,000 = $201,058,000 of owner earnings, divided by weighted average diluted shares of 45,729,497 = $4.40 per diluted share. Source: NHI FY2022 Form 10-K non-GAAP reconciliation table (NAREIT FFO / Normalized FFO / Normalized FAD), which presents FY2022, FY2021 and FY2020. Caveat: the standard CFO-minus-capex-minus-SBC formula is not meaningful for this issuer because its tagged capex is acquisition and development spend, not maintenance; on that literal basis FY2021 computes to roughly negative $1.07 per share. True recurring/maintenance capex is de minimis and is already deducted inside FAD. This figure is levered and post-interest, so no net-debt bridge is applied to it.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

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