Voya Financial, Inc. (VOYA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Voya Financial sells retirement plan services (401(k), 403(b) and similar plans), employee benefits (stop loss, group life, disability and voluntary products) and investment management, primarily in the United States. Earnings come from fees on plan and managed assets, insurance premiums less claims, and investment income. On January 2, 2025 Voya acquired OneAmerica's full-service retirement plan business. How we measured earnings: we started from operating cash flow, then removed the swings in insurance receivables, reserves and consolidated investment vehicles, and subtracted stock compensation. Capital spending is not separately reported and is immaterial. This gives owner earnings per share of roughly $4.98 (2023), $6.07 (2024) and $7.25 (2025). We use the 2023 to 2025 median of $6.07, less about $0.42 per share for preferred dividends (about $41 million a year), so about $5.65 per common share. 2022 (about $11.11) is excluded because it was inflated by large non-cash investment losses around the Individual Life sale, and earlier years describe a different, larger insurance business. Owner earnings rose about 19% in 2025, but most of that came from equity-market-linked fees and better stop loss results, so we assume no growth in year 1 and do not extrapolate it. All cases are discounted at 6%. Base case (about $66 per share): $5.65 per share stays flat for ten years, then declines about 5% a year afterward, since we can only evidence the existing in-force retirement and benefits business, not new business. A $160 million maximum payment to OneAmerica in 2026, tied to plan persistency, is deducted (about $1.64 per share). No growth is credited: share gains, market-driven asset growth and OneAmerica integration savings are not yet demonstrated. Bear case (about $41 per share): Stop loss returns to the 94% loss ratio seen in 2024 (it was 83.7% in 2025) and lower equity markets cut fees, so owner earnings revert to the 2023 level of about $4.98 less preferred dividends, about $4.56, then decline about 3% a year for ten years and 8% a year after. The full OneAmerica payment is deducted. Voya has about $1.5 billion of long-term debt at the holding company; its interest is already in cash flow, and leverage is reflected here, not through a balance-sheet deduction. Bull case (about $83 per share): the 2025 level of about $7.25 (about $6.83 after preferred dividends) holds for ten years, then declines about 5% a year afterward, with no OneAmerica payment. Stop loss improvement and OneAmerica assets are already in the 2025 results, so nothing beyond them is assumed. What could make this wrong: stop loss claim trends (in-force premiums fell from $1,821 million to $1,578 million as Voya repriced), equity market declines that shrink asset-based fees, and cash flow for an insurer being noisy because it includes reserve and investment-entity movements we could not fully reconcile line by line. Our latest quarterly filing (August 2026) was not available to us in full, so the level rests on annual filings through 2025.