PJT Partners Inc. (PJT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

PJT Partners is an advisory investment bank. In 2025 it earned $1,713.7 million of revenue: $1,500.4 million of advisory fees (strategic advice, restructuring) and $181.6 million of placement fees from Park Hill, its fund-placement arm. About 85% of revenue came from the United States and about 12% from the United Kingdom. Fees are earned when deals close, so results follow deal volume, and the largest cost is paying and equity-compensating bankers. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings in bonus accruals and receivables, and deduct all equity compensation as a real cost ($234.3 million in 2025). Per-share figures count the partnership units that can be exchanged for Class A shares, because the cash flow belongs to all of them; the 28.6 million diluted share count in the income statement leaves those units out. On this basis owner earnings per share were $2.12 (2019), $5.36, $4.73, $4.43, $3.66, $5.63 and $6.56 (2025). We anchor on the median of 2019-2025, $4.73, which starts after the 2019 CamberView acquisition and spans the 2020 boom and the 2022-2023 slowdown. 2025 capital spending jumped to $45.9 million from $3.3 million, on office build-out; we treated all of it as ongoing, which is conservative. Base case, about $73 per share. Owner earnings of $4.73 grow 3% a year for three years, 2% for two, 1% for two, then stay flat through year 10. Last year's actual growth was 16.6% ($5.63 to $6.56); we assume less. Revenue has compounded about 17% a year since 2017 ($499.3 million to $1,713.7 million), with one down year (2021, -5.7%), so a small credit is well inside that record. After year 10 we let earnings fade 3% a year because the business depends on individual bankers and has no contract locking in future fees. We did not credit the first half of 2026, when revenue rose to $904.5 million from $731.4 million, because deal cycles reverse and the level is set by the multi-year median. Bear case, about $37. A deal slump like 2021-2023, when owner earnings fell from $5.36 to $3.66, while compensation stays high; we use $3.00 for ten years, then a 5% annual fade as senior bankers leave. The company has no term debt (only a $100 million revolving facility, which it borrowed $15 million on and repaid within one of the last three years), so leverage is not a material driver of this case. Bull case, about $94. Earnings hold at the $6.10 average of 2024 and 2025, both demonstrated years, grow 3% for five years, stay flat for five, then fade 3%. What could make this wrong: the median understates today's earnings power if the 2024-2026 level persists (upside), while a prolonged deal drought or loss of senior partners would push results toward the bear case. Revenue by region is disclosed only for the United States, United Kingdom and other international, so we could not test country-level concentration further.