Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Perella Weinberg Partners is an independent advisory investment bank, founded in 2006 and public since June 2021. It earns fees advising companies on mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, capital solutions and financing, with offices in New York and London and revenue reported from the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries. Revenue is lumpy and follows deal completion: $802 million in 2021, $632 million in 2022, $649 million in 2023, $878 million in 2024 and $751 million in 2025, an average of about $742 million. The business has almost no capital needs (capex was $4 million in 2025), so the cash it produces is set by fee revenue less what it pays its people. The key judgement is stock compensation. Bankers are paid largely in equity, and we treat that as a real cost even though it is not cash. We also strip out the year-to-year swing in accrued bonuses, which flatters cash flow when bonuses are accrued (2024: a $93 million build) and hurts it when they are paid (2025: a $120 million payout). On that basis, per-share earning power was about $0.62 in 2021, negative in 2022 to 2024 (-$0.66, -$1.53, -$0.66) and $0.69 in 2025. Losses in 2022 to 2024 are driven by equity awards of $156 million to $189 million a year. In 2024 this included $130 million from a one-time accelerated vesting of partner awards linked to the April 2024 corporate merger. That acceleration is not expected to recur, and 2025 equity compensation fell to $110 million, so we measure the business from 2025 and, for the level, blend it with 2021, the other year with comparable equity compensation (about $97 million), although 2021 revenue of $802 million was above the five-year average. Together they point to earning power of roughly $0.65 per share, and 2025 revenue of $751 million sits close to the five-year average. The 2024 year is excluded from the level because of the one-time acceleration, and the 2022 to 2023 trough years are carried in the bear case rather than the level. This anchor rests on limited data and we say so plainly. Growth reconciliation: owner earnings per share swung from -$0.66 in 2024 to $0.69 in 2025, which is mostly the acceleration not repeating, not underlying growth. We therefore assume no growth in the first year. In the first half of 2026 revenue was $305 million against $367 million a year earlier, and equity compensation rose to $67 million from $55 million. The second quarter was flat on revenue ($157 million against $155 million), which does not yet justify moving the level, but it gives no reason to assume improvement. Base case: $0.65 per share a year, flat for 15 years, then fading to zero over the next 10. What is in the bag is a firm operating since 2006 whose revenue stayed between $630 million and $880 million over the last five years, including the 2022 to 2023 trough and the 2024 recovery. What is left out: deal-market recovery, headcount hiring, share gains and any margin improvement, none of which are secured. The fade reflects that a bank of this kind depends on its senior bankers and nothing contractual locks in revenue beyond the record. A future obligation of $93.5 million under the tax receivable agreement with former owners is deducted, about $0.80 per share in present value. Base value is about $6.50 per share. Bear case: a further slump like 2022 with heavy equity compensation, worth about -$0.50 a year for two years, then only $0.30 a year for eight years and a fade over ten more, less the tax receivable obligation. Value is about $0.60 per share. The evidence is that 2022 to 2024 produced negative earning power on this basis, and that equity compensation is a large, fixed-like commitment. Bull case: revenue returns to the 2024 level of $878 million, which the firm has already achieved, with equity compensation held at the 2025 level. That yields about $0.95 per share a year, flat for 15 years then fading over 10, less the tax receivable obligation. Value is about $9.90 per share. Margin-of-safety price: because the business is cyclical, depends on people and has produced negative earning power in three of the last five years, the margin-of-safety price is set at roughly half of the base value, $3.00 per share. What would make this wrong: if equity compensation continues at 2023 levels rather than 2025 levels, value is far lower; if deal activity recovers well above 2024 levels and compensation is held, value is higher. The 2026 quarterly figures show weaker revenue and higher equity expense than a year ago; a further decline would move the estimate toward the bear case.