$0.25
$2.85
bear $0.25
base $1.50
bull $2.85
margin of safety $1.00
market price* $5.67
Kyverna Therapeutics has no product revenue. Its one lead program, KYV-101 (miv-cel), is an autologous CAR-T cell therapy in pivotal Phase 2 trials for stiff person syndrome and generalized myasthenia gravis. Net losses were $60.4M in 2023, $127.5M in 2024 and $161.3M in 2025, and the first half of 2026 lost $78.0M. Operating cash outflow was $82M in the first six months of 2026, about $164M a year. Cash and short-term investments were $199.4M at June 30, 2026, down from $279.3M at year-end 2025. Shares outstanding rose from 43M to 61.8M after the 2024 listing and later offerings. There is no borrowing, so the value of the shares is the cash less what is spent before anything is earned. What we credit: the cash on hand and nothing else. We give no value to approval, launch or sales of KYV-101. Pivotal results are pending, no filing has been made, and no contract, license or revenue exists. Cell-therapy autoimmune competitors are also in trials. Under our standard that growth is not secured and not the output of a proven repeating process, so it is worth $0 here. Owner earnings are deeply negative (about -$3.37 per share in 2024 and -$3.81 in 2025), so there is no earnings stream to value. Bear case ($0.25 per share): the trials miss or are delayed, the company keeps spending near $160M a year while it decides, and it must raise more money at low prices. Biotech funding downturns such as 2022 to 2023 have repeatedly forced such raises. Roughly $0.25 per share of cash would be left after wind-down costs and dilution. Business worth about $0, debt $0, difference about $0.25 of cash. Base case ($1.50 per share): the company keeps funding trials at the recent pace, so about a year of the $199M is consumed (about $2.70 per share) before any de-risking, and the remaining cash is further diluted by a new raise. The median owner keeps roughly half of today's cash value per share. Business worth about $0, debt $0, net cash value about $1.50 per share. Bull case ($2.85 per share): the company winds down or is acquired with cash largely preserved, roughly $199M less about $25M of closing costs, spread over about 61M shares. We do not credit a drug-success value because it is not yet evidenced. The previous estimate used a probability-weighted drug-sales model; those figures are not comparable. The main change in the business is that liquidity is higher than previously noted ($199.4M including $167.6M of short-term investments, versus the $32M cash line previously cited), while spending continues to accelerate. What would make this wrong: positive pivotal data and a partnership or approval pathway would be worth far more than the cash, and we are deliberately not valuing that. The opposite risk is a further raise on poor terms. Margin-of-safety price $1.00: Earnings are negative, so the only evidenced value is cash that is being spent at about $2.70 per share per year, and cash runway is about 14 months at the current rate. The worst plausible outcome is a failed trial followed by wind-down, which this structure survives with little debt but little residue. If we are wrong about the burn rate or the dilution, shares could be worth under $0.50. The price assumes a one-to-two-year holding period for trial data, and the business pays nothing in the meantime. At $1.00 the price is well under the cash that remains even after another year of burn and dilution; from that price the base case implies a 20% annual return if the pivotal readouts are neutral, with more if they are positive. Limits on our checking: the filing text was no longer available to search, so the absence of a going-concern warning is inferred from the cash runway of more than 12 months rather than confirmed from the text.