FB Bancorp, Inc. /MD/ (FBLA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

FB Bancorp is the holding company for Fidelity Bank, a New Orleans savings bank with 18 full-service branches across southern Louisiana, about $1.23 billion of assets, $811 million of deposits and roughly $750 million of loans (home mortgages, commercial real estate and small-business loans). It converted from mutual to stock ownership in October 2024, raising about $188 million. In December 2025 it agreed to sell its mortgage-banking division, NOLA Lending Group, to First Federal Bank of Lake City, Florida; the sale closed on March 1, 2026. That division lost $7.7 million in 2024 (including a $5.8 million goodwill write-off) and $2.7 million in 2025, so everything below looks only at the bank that remains. What the bank earns. The remaining bank earned $1.5 million in 2024 and $3.9 million in 2025, and about $1.2 million in the first half of 2026 (roughly $2.4 million a year). On a cash basis owner earnings were close to zero in both 2024 and 2025 (about -$0.04 and -$0.01 a share), because the bank spent $5-7 million a year building branches against depreciation of about $2.7 million; that program appears finished (only $0.2 million spent in the first half of 2026), so we treat future upkeep spending as roughly equal to depreciation. Loan-loss provisions (about $1.7 million a year) are close to actual charge-offs, so we treat them as a real cost rather than adding them back. The key fact: the bank holds far more capital than it needs. Shareholders' equity was $283.8 million at June 30, 2026 (about $19.40 per share), or 23% of assets; the bank's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 20% at year-end 2025 against a 5% well-capitalized minimum. Most of today's profit is simply the interest earned on that surplus capital. If roughly 10% of assets is a comfortable capital level, about $161 million is surplus, and at roughly 4.25% pre-tax it earns about $5-6 million a year after tax. Take that out and the underlying banking operation lost roughly $2-3.5 million a year in 2025 and 2026. Its costs are high for its size: operating expenses were 88% of revenue in 2025 and higher in 2026, and new stock awards under the 2025 Equity Incentive Plan (approved December 2025: up to 793,500 restricted shares and 1,983,750 options) added about $2 million a year of compensation cost. Deposit costs have not fallen (interest expense ran at about $18.7 million a year in the first half of 2026). We found no named, evidenced driver that will turn the core bank profitable, so none is credited. How value is built. The value of these shares therefore comes mostly from the surplus capital being handed back, plus (or minus) whatever the core bank earns. Management has been returning capital steadily: $22.2 million of buybacks in 2025 and $27.6 million in the first half of 2026, completing two programs of 10% of shares each and announcing a third of 1,606,837 shares. That is an established pattern, so we credit continued return of the surplus. All values use a 6% discount rate; as a bank, its deposits and borrowings are its raw material, so no debt is subtracted separately. Values are per share on about 14.7 million shares (16.07 million outstanding less unallocated ESOP shares). Base case ($8.62): about $161 million of surplus is returned over five years while it keeps earning about 3.4% after tax (worth about $150 million today). The core bank keeps losing about $2.5 million a year for five years while the new stock awards vest, then about $1.0 million a year once that cost rolls off, with no improvement assumed (worth about -$23 million). Total about $127 million. Growth check: the core bank's loss in 2025 was about $2.7 million; the base case starts at a $2.5 million loss, essentially the trailing level, and assumes no growth. Bear case ($5.11): regulators or the board keep more capital (11% of assets), so only $149 million is surplus and it comes back slowly over eight years; the core bank loses $3.5 million a year indefinitely, the first-half 2026 pace, as deposit costs and compensation stay high. The bank's loans and deposits are concentrated in the New Orleans area, which is exposed to hurricanes and to the oil, refining and tourism economy. Total about $75 million. Bull case ($11.66): capital settles at 9% of assets, freeing $174 million, returned over four years; the core bank's loss narrows to $1 million a year as the branch build-out finishes and then turns to about $1 million of profit once the stock-award cost ends. Total about $171 million. What we left out. A sale of the whole bank to a larger lender at or near book value is common for converted savings banks once the three-year post-conversion restriction ends (October 2027), and would be worth far more than any case above, but there is no agreement or announcement, so it is not credited. Cost cutting has not been announced and is likewise not credited. Even the bull case is well below book value because a bank that earns almost nothing on its required capital is worth less than the capital it holds. What would make this wrong: a buyout or major restructuring (upside); repurchases made at prices well below the values above would also raise per-share value over time. On the downside, a halt to buybacks, a large credit loss in the Louisiana real estate book, or continued expense growth would push value toward or below the bear case. One reporting quirk: the company's own continuing-operations cash flow subtotal starts from total net income including the discontinued division's loss; we corrected for this, and the corrected figures reconcile to reported earnings.