$9.40
$25.30
bear $9.40
base $19.70
bull $25.30
margin of safety $12.00
market price* $30.97
Doximity runs the largest online network for U.S. physicians and earns its money by selling access to that audience. Its customers, primarily pharmaceutical manufacturers and health systems, pay subscriptions for marketing to physicians, for physician hiring, and for workflow tools. The company has one reporting segment and a fiscal year ending March 31. In fiscal 2026 revenue was $644.9 million, up 13% from $570.4 million. The 125 customers spending at least $500,000 a year (up from 118) produced about 83% of revenue, so results depend on a fairly small group of large buyers, mainly pharmaceutical marketing budgets. How we measured earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove the swings from receivables, prepaid items, deferred contract costs, payables and deferred revenue, deduct stock compensation as a real cost, and deduct only the capital spending needed to maintain the business (mostly capitalized software, about $8.9 million in fiscal 2026). Owner earnings per diluted share were $0.69, $0.69, $0.74, $1.09 and $1.22 for fiscal 2022 through 2026. Stock compensation rose sharply, from $72 million to $122 million in fiscal 2026, and is fully charged here. Fiscal 2020 and 2021 are excluded because the pre-IPO share counts are not comparable. We anchored on the median of fiscal 2024 to 2026, $1.09 per share (about $217 million), because the earnings level has stepped up as the business roughly doubled in size since fiscal 2022. The fiscal 2022 and 2023 years describe a much smaller company. Our own calculation of earnings from the income statement and cash flow items reconciled to within 1%. Growth. Owner earnings per share grew 11.6% in fiscal 2026 (total owner earnings grew 10.4%). Our base case starts year one at 8%, below that trailing rate, because the net revenue retention rate on existing subscription customers slipped from 119% in fiscal 2025 to 109% in fiscal 2026 and stock compensation is growing faster than revenue. We credit only growth that continues a demonstrated pattern: revenue has grown every year in the record, and the large-customer count has climbed from 100 to 118 to 125 in the last three years. We taper that growth to zero by year nine, since the record covers only a few years and we do not credit new products, the AI tools, or market expansion. Base case, $19.70 per share: owner earnings growth of 8% fading to zero by year nine, holding flat through year ten, then declining 3% a year afterward. The network of physicians is a structural asset, but competitors, including newer AI-based services such as OpenEvidence, Abridge, OpenAI and Anthropic, named in the company's filing, could erode it slowly, so we assume a slow fade rather than permanence. Bear case, $9.40 per share: the slowdown in net revenue retention continues, large pharmaceutical customers trim or renegotiate marketing budgets, and owner earnings fall 5% a year indefinitely from today's level. The evidence is the drop in retention over two years, the concentration in a small group of large customers, and rising stock compensation. The company is also defending a lawsuit filed by OpenEvidence in federal court in Massachusetts (a January 2026 ruling dismissed one claim but let the others proceed); we assign no dollar outcome to it, but it is a distraction and a possible cost. Bull case, $25.30 per share: the recent 12% pace of growth continues and fades to zero by year ten, with a 2% annual decline afterward. That is the company's own record repeating, not a new product or market. Since the shares are valued from cash the business generates for owners, no cash balance is added and no debt is subtracted. What would prove this wrong: retention falling well below 100%, a loss of several of the largest customers, or stock compensation continuing to grow faster than revenue. Buying back stock has reduced diluted shares from 213 million in fiscal 2023 to 199 million in fiscal 2026, which supports per-share results. We have not incorporated the quarter ended June 30, 2026.