Anixa Biosciences Inc (ANIX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Anixa Biosciences is a clinical-stage cancer company with no product revenue. It has two programs. Lira-cel is a CAR-T cell therapy for recurrent ovarian cancer, licensed from The Wistar Institute and tested in a Phase 1 dose-escalation trial at Moffitt Cancer Center; the first patient was treated in August 2022, four dose cohorts are complete, and the fifth was under way in October 2026. The 10-K (filed January 2026) says the study will enroll up to 24 to 48 patients and is expected to finish in two to three years. The second program is a breast cancer vaccine licensed from Cleveland Clinic; its Phase 1 trial (35 participants, fully paid for by a Department of Defense grant to Cleveland Clinic) finished, with final data shown in December 2025, and a Phase 2 trial is only being planned. Management's stated plan is to license a successful program to a large drug company. No such partner has been signed. What the business earns. There are no earnings to value. Cash used in operations was $7.2 million in fiscal 2025 and $6.1 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. Stock-based pay ($3.8 million in fiscal 2025) is a real cost to shareholders, so we deduct it, and we strip out one-off swings in payables and prepaid expenses. On that basis the loss per share was about $0.46 in fiscal 2021, $0.45 in 2022, $0.32 in 2023, $0.40 in 2024 and $0.34 in 2025, and every year back to fiscal 2016 is also negative. The middle of the last five years is a loss of about $0.40 a share. In cash terms we assume spending of about $7.5 million a year (fiscal 2025 was $7.2 million; the first nine months of 2026 were $6.1 million). The fiscal 2025 loss per share narrowed about 14% from 2024, and the cases assume no further improvement. General and administrative cost ($6.6 million in 2025) is larger than research spending ($5.1 million). What the shares are worth rests on cash. At July 31, 2026 the company held $13.9 million in cash and short-term investments, with no borrowings; the only obligations are ordinary payables, accruals and a small office lease ($0.17 million). With 34.76 million shares outstanding (September 9, 2026), that cash is about $0.40 per share. About 12.4 million employee and consultant options (average exercise price $3.60 at October 31, 2025) are far above the values below and do not change them. The company sells stock through an at-the-market program to fund itself ($2.4 million in fiscal 2025, $4.8 million in the first nine months of 2026), but it raised nothing that way in fiscal 2022 or 2023, when the cash simply ran down. We give no value to a licensing deal because nothing in the filings shows one is signed or under negotiation, early-stage cancer drugs mostly fail, and the 10-K itself says so. We also give no value to the pipeline beyond what it costs to keep it alive. Bear case: $0.01 a share. The lira-cel dose escalation finishes without a response clear enough to attract a partner, the vaccine goes unfunded after Phase 1, and, as in fiscal 2022 and 2023, stock sales are not available. Spending continues at about $7.5 million a year for about 21 months (to roughly April 2028): $13.86 million of cash less $13.13 million spent leaves $0.74 million, and after about $0.5 million of closing costs (an estimate; it includes the lease) roughly $0.24 million, or $0.01 a share. The business is worth about $0.24 million, it owes no borrowings, so the difference is the same $0.24 million. Base case: $0.11 a share. The company keeps running at the same pace for about 15 months, to roughly October 2027, through the fifth dose cohort and the data that follows, with stock sales topping up cash at roughly fair prices. No partner has been signed by then, so we assume spending is cut back to what the remaining cash supports. Cash of $13.86 million less $9.38 million spent leaves $4.49 million, and after about $0.5 million of closing costs, $3.99 million, or $0.11 a share. The business is worth about $3.99 million, it owes no borrowings, so the difference is the same $3.99 million. Growth is not credited anywhere: the company has no revenue and no proven repeatable process that adds earnings. Bull case: $0.40 a share. Lira-cel or the vaccine shows clear enough responses that a partner takes over development costs and pays enough to cover the company's own spending, so today's cash is preserved: $13.86 million, about $0.40 a share, no borrowings. Anything a partner would pay above that is excluded because no amount, term sheet or counterparty is evidenced. Our September 2026 estimate gave weight to a chance of a licensing deal; those figures are not directly comparable with these. The business facts are broadly unchanged: cash is about the same, spending is slightly higher, and the fifth dose cohort and one three-month stable-disease result are the only new clinical items. No partnership has been announced. What would make this wrong. The cases are too low if a large company signs a meaningful licensing deal, which we do not value, or if management cuts overhead faster than assumed. They are too high if spending rises above $7.5 million a year or if closing costs exceed our $0.5 million estimate. Why the margin-of-safety price is $0.05 a share. We are sure of the burn, not of any earning power: cash spending has run $3.4 million to $7.3 million a year since fiscal 2016, and almost nothing comes in apart from small licensing receipts and interest. The worst plausible outcome is that the trials disappoint, no financing is available and the cash is spent by about mid-2028; with no debt no lender can force a restructuring, but management controls how fast cash is spent and paid $3.8 million in stock-based pay in fiscal 2025. The two things we are most likely to be wrong about are the pace of spending and when the board would stop; a faster pace or a later stop leaves little of the cash, and the bear case shows that at about a cent. The price assumes a holding period of about two years, to the lira-cel decision point, and the company pays nothing in the meantime. At $0.05 the whole company would be priced at about $1.7 million, less than three months of its cash burn and about an eighth of the cash it holds. From that price the base case implies more than twice the price in about 15 months, and the bear case implies a loss of most of it; any partnership is not valued in any case.