SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

SPX Technologies is the successor to legacy SPX Corporation following the September 2015 spin-off of SPX FLOW; only FY2016-2025 of standalone XBRL/10-K data exist and pre-2016 figures were excluded as not comparable to the current, differently-configured entity. Owner earnings (CFO-capex-SBC) per diluted share rose from ~$0.46 (2017) to $2.63 (2019), $3.27 (2021), $3.67 (2023) and $4.95 (2024), settling at $4.63 (2025) as capex jumped to fund data-center capacity expansion; 2022 was a reported outlier driven by a one-time cash contribution to divested subsidiaries tied to the Asbestos Portfolio Sale (a legacy-liability divestiture, treated as non-recurring). Growth since 2023 has been driven partly by debt-funded bolt-on M&A and increasingly by a fast-growing data-center cooling franchise within HVAC: HVAC backlog of $919M (+59% organically), with data-center segment revenue ramping from $150M (2024) to a guided $430M (2026). Bear: reversion to a pre-boom trough owner-earnings run-rate of ~$3.00/share, 2% growth, 12% discount -> ~$28. Base: current ~$4.50/share run-rate growing 8% for five years fading to 2.5% terminal, 9.5% discount -> ~$87. Bull: data-center tailwind persists at a still-conservative-vs-guidance 14% for five years fading to 3% terminal, 8.5% discount -> ~$146. All net out FY2025 net debt of ~$2.76/share. The margin-of-safety price is set at ~40% discount to base (wider than a standard 30% haircut) because the bear-to-bull spread is unusually wide (~5x), the comparable operating history is short (real growth inflection only in the last 2-3 years), and the growth thesis concentrates on hyperscaler capex budgets that could decelerate quickly.