$20.00
$52.00
bear $20.00
base $35.00
bull $52.00
margin of safety $20.00
market price* $206.42
Vertiv makes and services the power, cooling and management equipment that keeps data centers, communication networks and industrial sites running (brands include Liebert, NetSure, Geist, Avocent and Energy Labs). In 2025 it sold $10.2 billion of product and services: 62% in the Americas, 20% in Asia Pacific and 18% in Europe, Middle East and Africa. Its main end markets are data centers (including AI-focused ones), communication networks, and commercial and industrial sites. How we measured earnings. We use the cash the business generates for shareholders after removing swings in working capital, share-based pay and the spending needed to keep its plants and equipment going. Per diluted share this was about $0.69 in 2020, $0.72 in 2021, $0.49 in 2022, $1.82 in 2023, $2.65 in 2024 and $3.96 in 2025. Vertiv became publicly traded on February 7, 2020, and we measure from that year. Results for 2020 to 2022 were far lower than the last three years. We anchor on the middle of 2023 to 2025, or $2.65 per share, rather than the peak. Working capital brought in unusually large cash in 2025 ($339 million) and in the first half of 2026 ($679 million); we strip that out because it is timing, not earnings. A $449 million non-cash warrant charge in 2024 does not affect cash flow and is not counted. Growth. Earnings per share rose about 49% in 2025 ($3.96 versus $2.65). For 2026 our base case assumes about $4.00, roughly flat with 2025, which is below the recent pace. The filings support that level. The order backlog was $15.0 billion at the end of 2025, versus $7.2 billion a year earlier, and most of it is firm and due to ship within 12 to 18 months. The first half of 2026 also produced roughly $2.27 per share, on sales up about 27% from the first half of 2025. We give credit for shipping that backlog in 2026 and part of 2027 and for nothing beyond it. Continued growth in AI and data center spending, new products and market share gains have no signed backing in the filings, so they are left out. Customers can cut or defer firm orders, usually with penalties, and large cloud, neocloud and colocation customers have strong bargaining power, so we treat the backlog as strong evidence but not a guarantee. Base case, about $35 per share. Earnings of about $4.00 in 2026 and $4.40 in 2027 while the backlog ships, then $4.00 in 2028, $3.50 in 2029 and $3.00 in 2030, settling at $2.65 from 2031 and held through 2045. That $2.65 is the middle of the last three years, and the much lower results of 2020 to 2022 show why we do not assume the recent strength lasts. Bear case, about $20 per share. Customers defer or cancel part of the backlog and pricing pressure from large customers builds. Earnings fall to $3.60 in 2026 and $2.80 in 2027, then settle near $1.80, the 2023 level, through 2040, after which we assume nothing. Vertiv also carries about $2.9 billion of long-term debt, so a weaker period would leave less for shareholders. Bull case, about $52 per share. The backlog ships on schedule at the profitability of the first half of 2026: earnings of $4.60 in 2026 and $5.60 in 2027 and 2028, easing to $5.00 in 2029 and $4.50 in 2030, then $3.60 from 2031 through 2050. The December 2025 purchase of PurgeRite, a data center flushing and filtration services firm bought for about $1.14 billion, contributed only about four weeks to 2025 results, so its full-year effect is not yet in our figures. What could make this wrong. If data center demand stays strong well beyond the backlog, our base case is too low. If large customers cancel orders, or profitability slides back toward 2020 to 2022 levels, it is too high. The filings we reviewed did not let us confirm how much of sales comes from any single customer. The margin-of-safety price is about $20 per share, close to our bear case, reflecting a cyclical, data-center-dependent business that carries debt.