PULSE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (PLSE) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Pulse Biosciences develops the nPulse system, which uses nanosecond pulsed electric fields to ablate tissue. Its product today is the Vybrance Percutaneous Electrode System, which received FDA 510(k) clearance in March 2024 for soft tissue ablation, with a second needle size cleared in August 2024. The company also has a cardiac surgical program aimed at atrial fibrillation. In September 2022 it stopped selling in dermatology, its first market, and refocused on cardiology and soft tissue. What the business earns today: nothing. Revenue was $1.4 million in 2021, $0.7 million in 2022, zero in 2023 and 2024, and $0.35 million in 2025. In the first half of 2026 revenue was $0.8 million. Against that, operating cash flow was a loss of $54.1 million in 2025 and $33.3 million in the first half of 2026. Stock compensation is a further real cost: $21.5 million in 2025. Our owner-earnings measure (operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, stock compensation and maintenance capital spending) was negative every year we could measure, per share: about -$2.09 (2020), -$2.22 (2021), -$1.42 (2022), -$0.84 (2023), -$0.90 (2024) and -$1.07 (2025). The loss widened in 2025, the most recent full year, so we do not assume any improvement in year one. In 2022 the company also wrote off $8.5 million of excess and obsolete inventory built up in the dermatology business, an example of capital spent and lost. How it is funded: cash was $80.7 million at the end of 2025. The company says this covers at least twelve months from the annual report filing but also says it plans to raise more capital soon. Majority stockholder and Co-Chairman Robert Duggan bought about 88% of the June 2024 $60 million rights offering, and the filing says he may or may not join future raises or may offer debt financing. Continued dilution is likely. The filing lists delisting from Nasdaq among the consequences if funds run short. Bear, base and bull: we value the shares at $0 in all three cases. Our rule is to credit only value we can name and evidence today. There is a cleared product, more than 300 procedures done by pilot and early commercial sites, and a 50-patient thyroid nodule study (PRECISE BTN) started in September 2025. But there are no signed sales contracts, no backlog and no history of repeat, self-funded growth. Adoption, reimbursement and future clearances are hoped-for events, not facts, so they are left out even in the bull case. That means this analysis says nothing about the upside if the technology succeeds. It only says we cannot support a value from evidence in the filings. Cash on hand is being consumed by the losses at roughly the rate above, so we do not count it as value for shareholders either. What would prove this wrong: sustained, growing recurring revenue from Vybrance with cash flow turning positive after stock compensation. Half-year revenue of $0.8 million against a $33 million cash burn is far from that today. No prior analysis of this company existed, so this is a first assessment.