$1.00
$9.90
bear $1.00
base $6.40
bull $9.90
margin of safety $3.50
market price* $21.91
Pinterest reported 619 million monthly active users in its 2025 annual report, and its risk disclosures centre on advertising revenue. In 2025 revenue was $4,221.8 million, up 16% from $3,646.2 million. By customer billing address, the United States and Canada contributed $3,052.6 million (United States alone $2,912.0 million), Europe $779.1 million and Rest of World $390.0 million. By user location, Europe revenue grew 31% and Rest of World 62%, against 10% in the United States and Canada. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow and remove the swing in working capital, then subtract stock-based compensation as a real cost, and then subtract only the part of capital spending needed to stand still. Stock-based compensation is the key judgement. It was $880.5 million in 2025, about 21% of revenue, and it is added back in operating cash flow. Treating it as a cost roughly cuts 2025 operating cash flow of $1,284.3 million to owner earnings of about $433 million, or $0.63 per diluted share. Capital spending is small ($32.4 million in 2025). Receivables have grown every year, and the roughly $50 million a year they absorbed in 2024 and 2025 is removed as a timing item under our method, which flatters the result slightly. The record on this basis: $0.57 per share in 2021, a loss of $0.13 in 2022, $0.11 in 2023, $0.34 in 2024 and $0.63 in 2025. The 2019 and 2020 results are negative, dominated by stock compensation of $1,377.8 million in 2019 following the company's 2019 share offering, and we do not use those years. Owner earnings per share rose about 85% in 2025. The 2022 result shows how thin the margin is: revenue still grew about 9% that year, yet owner earnings turned negative because costs, chiefly stock compensation, rose with it. Earnings level used. We use about $0.48 per share, the average of 2024 and 2025. Those are the two years in the current cost structure, and the 2023 figure came before it. We did not use the sharply rising 2025 figure alone, because one year is not enough to establish a new level. Year-one growth in our base case is 4%, well below the 85% just reported, so no deceleration reversal has to be argued. Base case: about $6.4 per share. Revenue has grown in every year from 2017 through 2025, including 2022, with no meaningful capital needed to do so, and 2022 was the slowest year at about 9%. We credit growth at 4% a year, tapering to zero by year 9, well under that record, and we assume no margin expansion, no new products and no share gains, since none of these is secured. After year 10 we let earnings continue at that level for ten further years, on the strength of the user base already in place, and then assume nothing. Bear case: about $1.0 per share. Owner earnings fall back to the 2023 level of $0.11 and stay flat, with nothing credited for growth, and last 15 years. The 2022 loss shows that advertising-funded revenue and heavy stock compensation can leave nothing for shareholders if revenue growth stalls. Bull case: about $9.9 per share. Owner earnings start from the 2025 level of $0.63 and grow 8% for two years, 6% for two, 4% for two and 2% for two, reflecting the pace of 2025 revenue growth as the business keeps scaling without added capital, and then persist for ten years after year 10. Europe and Rest of World grew 31% and 62% in 2025 by user location, but we credit no market expansion beyond this tapering path. Values are for the earnings stream itself, with no addition for balance-sheet cash and no deduction for debt. What would make this wrong: a further step-up in stock compensation relative to revenue would push the case toward the bear figure; sustained margin gains beyond the 2025 level would push it above the bull. The company's 2026 second-quarter report was not available to us in searchable form, so the latest quarter has not informed the growth path.