OLB GROUP, INC. (OLB) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

The OLB Group is a small payments company. Most of its revenue comes from card processing for small and mid-sized merchants across the United States, through its eVance subsidiary. It also has small software, subscription and digital-product lines, and runs a Bitcoin mining operation in Selmer, Tennessee. In 2025 revenue was $8.68 million. Of that, $7.94 million was transaction and processing fees, $0.30 million subscriptions, $0.20 million digital products and $0.21 million Bitcoin mining. Revenue has been falling fast. It was $30.6 million in 2023, $12.8 million in 2024 and $8.7 million in 2025. In the first half of 2026 it was $2.94 million, against $4.59 million a year earlier. The company blamed the 2025 drop mainly on Moola Cloud, LLC while it moved to new vendors, and said the new vendors would be in use by the first quarter of 2026. Revenue still fell in both 2026 quarters: $1.66 million in the first and $1.28 million in the second. The economics are thin. In 2025, processing costs took $7.53 million, or 87% of revenue. That left about $1.15 million to cover $3.0 million of salaries, $0.94 million of professional fees and $1.88 million of general expenses. We measure the cash the business produces for its owners. That is operating cash flow, without temporary swings in unpaid bills and receivables, minus stock-based pay and the equipment spending needed to keep operating. On that measure OLB has lost money every year since it bought the eVance business in April 2018. The loss was $0.5 to $0.9 million a year in 2018 to 2020. It grew to about $5.2 million in 2023, $5.6 million in 2024 and $5.1 million in 2025, and was about $2.4 million in the first half of 2026. The reported cash figures look better than that. In 2025 unpaid bills and accrued expenses grew by $3.1 million, much of it salary and loans owed to related parties, and these were later paid in stock. We take that support out. We also count the $0.66 million of shares issued in 2025 to pay for services as a real cost, the same as stock compensation. The 2021 figures are distorted by $9.6 million of mining equipment, much of it later written off: impairments were $12.9 million in 2023 and $3.0 million in 2024. So we base our starting point on 2023 to 2025, which reflects the business as it is now. The typical annual loss in that period was about $5.2 million. The losses have been paid for with new shares, with loans from chief executive Ronny Yakov, who controls about 35% of the vote, and by turning debts into stock. In 2025 the company converted $1.5 million of related-party loans, $2.0 million of accrued related-party salary and $0.75 million of other accrued liabilities into shares. Shares outstanding grew from 2.28 million at the end of 2024 (after a 1-for-10 reverse split in April 2024) to 9.44 million at the end of 2025. They were 12.5 million by March 31, 2026 and 24.0 million by August 14, 2026. The 2026 raises were a January registered direct offering of 2.17 million shares with warrants, for about $1.3 million, and a February private placement of warrants, for about $3.0 million. Cash was $15,777 at the end of 2025 and $1.28 million at June 30, 2026. In March 2026 management said it expected to fund operations through March 31, 2027 by raising more capital, selling shares into the market and borrowing from the chief executive. Nasdaq told the company on January 29, 2026 that its shares had closed below the $1.00 minimum bid for 30 business days. The company had until July 28, 2026 to regain compliance. The filings we reviewed do not say whether it did or was given more time. The share count kept rising through August, so no reverse split had taken effect by then. Base case, -$0.82 per share. Losses continue at about the first-half 2026 pace, roughly $4.7 million a year, for five years. We end the story there because revenue fell 32% in 2025 and 36% in the first half of 2026. At that rate the processing business would shrink to around $1 million of revenue by 2030, leaving little to operate. At a 6% discount rate, those losses are worth about -$19.8 million today. In other words, as it stands the business is expected to use about $20 million more cash than it produces. Existing owners pay for that through further dilution. Bull case, -$0.44. The vendor changes stop the revenue decline. The 2025 cost cuts continue: professional fees fell 52% and general expenses 34% that year. No stock-based pay was recorded in the first half of 2026, and it stays at zero. The annual loss narrows from $4.2 million to $0.6 million over five years, and the business then breaks even. We give no credit for profits above breakeven, because the business has never produced any. We also give no value to the Bitcoin treasury policy the company recently adopted, since nothing in the filings shows a return from it. Present value is about -$10.6 million. Bear case, -$1.30. Losses stay at the 2024 to 2025 level, about $5.2 million a year, for seven years. That assumes the chief executive's loans and share sales keep funding them, as they have since 2018. The business is then wound down. At June 30, 2026 liabilities were $6.8 million. In a wind-down they would exceed what the remaining assets fetch by about $3.2 million, because the $8.1 million of goodwill from the 2018 eVance purchase and the largely depreciated mining equipment would bring in little. Present value is about -$31.2 million. In every case, the company appears to owe more than it is worth. Its future cash needs are larger than anything the business is expected to return, by roughly $11 million to $31 million, or about $20 million in the base case. The estimate would be wrong if the merchant portfolio were sold for a meaningful price, or if revenue began growing again. Neither has any support in the filings today.