Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. (NRIX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Nurix Therapeutics is a clinical-stage drug developer built around targeted protein degradation. Its lead candidate, bexobrutideg, degrades the BTK protein and is in a Phase 2 trial in relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia. It has FDA Fast Track designation (January 2024) and EMA PRIME designation (November 2024). Zelebrudomide and NX-1607 are earlier. The company has no approved products. Its only revenue is collaboration income from Sanofi, Gilead and Pfizer: $84.0 million in fiscal 2025, versus $54.5 million in 2024 and $77.0 million in 2023. For the first half of fiscal 2026 (to May 31, 2026) revenue was $15.3 million, against $62.5 million a year earlier. What the business earns today: after subtracting stock compensation, working-capital swings and maintenance-level capital spending, owner earnings have been negative every year we can measure, at roughly $(2.5) to $(3.6) per share (fiscal 2021 to 2025): $(2.52), $(3.64), $(2.56), $(2.86) and $(2.91). Operating cash outflow reached $249.5 million in fiscal 2025 on a net loss of $264.5 million. The share count also rose from about 43 million diluted shares in 2021 to about 87 million in 2025 (and about 111 million in the latest quarter), so existing holders have been diluted to fund the losses. How we valued it: we credit only value that is contracted, proven or already earned. Nothing in the filings puts a positive stream of owner earnings in the bag. Collaboration revenue is well below the cost of the research programs and has been lumpy, and the drug candidates have not yet produced an approval or product sales. Potential milestone payments and future drug sales depend on trial results and regulatory decisions that have not happened, so they are left out of all three cases rather than included at a discount. That gives $0 per share in the bear, base and bull cases. This does not mean the shares can never be worth anything. It means the value rests on trial outcomes we cannot evidence today, and we do not count cash on the balance sheet ($592.9 million in cash and marketable securities at November 30, 2025) against the ongoing burn, since that cash is what funds the losses. The company says that cash is sufficient for at least the next 12 months. The downside is that the cash runs out before any program succeeds and further equity raises dilute holders again. The case would look different if a candidate reached approval, or if partner payments rose above the roughly $250 million annual cash burn. The estimate would be revisited if either happened. Items we could not fully reconcile: the filings do not tag accrued-liability changes separately, so our working-capital adjustment covers payables, receivables, prepaid items and deferred collaboration revenue. This does not change the conclusion, since owner earnings are deeply negative under any reading.