HINES GLOBAL INCOME TRUST, INC. (HGIT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Hines Global Income Trust is a non-traded real estate investment trust. It owned interests in 55 properties (about 24.4 million square feet, 95% leased) at the end of 2025, spread across the United States and Europe: offices, industrial and logistics buildings, retail centers and residential. Shares are not listed on an exchange; they are sold and redeemed at a monthly estimated net asset value, so what follows is a value based on the cash the business actually earns for its owners, not a market quote and not an appraisal of the buildings. How we measure earnings. We start with cash from operations, remove the swings from timing of receivables and payables, and subtract the cost of capital improvements at the properties. Leasing commissions and tenant costs (about $40 million in 2025) are kept in the figure because a landlord pays them every year to keep space full. The trust is run by an outside advisor and pays no stock compensation. We do not credit spending on new acquisitions as a cost, and we do not credit acquisitions as growth (see below). On this basis owner earnings per share were roughly $0.20 in 2019 and 2020, $0.03 in 2022, $0.14 in 2023, about negative $0.03 in 2024 and about negative $0.28 in 2025. The 2025 figure is depressed because $57.7 million of that year's operating cash flow came from payables and amounts owed to the advisor building up, which we strip out, while capital spending on properties rose to $76.5 million from $22.6 million in 2023. The starting level. We use the median of 2019 through 2025, about $0.03 per share, because the trust's leasing and capital-spending pattern has been broadly similar over this period and the 2024 and 2025 weakness needs to be weighed against the stronger years rather than replace them. The 2025 year-to-year change in owner earnings was a decline (from about negative $0.03 to negative $0.28); the base case assumes no growth in year one, so no reversal has to be explained. Results for the first half of 2026 do not show improvement: operating cash flow was $8.5 million and property capital spending $28.1 million, even though revenue was $262.7 million against $194.7 million a year earlier. What is and is not credited as growth. The trust bought $1.6 billion of properties in 2025 and $506 million in 2024, and raised $525.7 million of share capital plus $688.6 million through its Delaware statutory trust program in 2025. Those purchases raised revenue sharply, but operating cash flow rose only $0.6 million in 2025 because higher interest costs absorbed most of the new rent, and the share count rose from about 263 million to about 334 million. Growth funded by selling new shares at a fixed net asset value does not add per-share earnings that we can evidence, so no acquisition growth is credited in any case. Distributions. The trust pays $0.625 per share a year, or $170 million in 2025. Operating cash flow covered 32% of it; 54% was reinvested by shareholders and 14% came from other sources such as asset sales. The payout is therefore not earned by operations today. Bear case ($0). Owner earnings stay at or below zero, as they were in 2021, 2024 and 2025 and so far in 2026. Average debt cost has already risen from 1.83% at the end of 2021 to 4.03% at the end of 2025, with about 82% of debt at fixed rates, and refinancing at current rates would add to it. Nothing we can name and evidence produces a positive stream in this case, so we value it at zero. This is not a claim that the properties have no worth; it is a statement that on the earnings they deliver to owners, we cannot support a value. Base case ($0.46). Owner earnings hold at the roughly $0.03 median with no growth, at a 6% discount rate. This is close to break-even and is the median of what the business has actually produced. Bull case ($2.40). Owner earnings return to the $0.14 per share level actually achieved in 2023 at a similar share count, as the $1.6 billion of 2025 acquisitions and the leasing of vacant space bring in more rent than the higher interest and capital spending absorb. That is a demonstrated level, not a new one, but it requires the cash-flow shortfall of the latest year and a half to reverse. The trust also reports a gain of $149.6 million on the February 2025 sale of its Maintal Logistics property in Germany, which is a one-time item excluded from our earnings. We also note that the filings do not let us fully explain why operating cash flow has been flat while the portfolio roughly doubled since 2021; we chose not to assume it recovers. What would make this wrong. Because the trust owns real property and reports a net asset value far above the value we derive from owner earnings, the shares may be worth more than shown if these buildings are sold and the proceeds distributed to holders. Our method values the earnings stream, not liquidation, and does not credit the buildings above what they earn for owners after leasing costs, capital spending and interest. Strong 2026 second-half cash flow after leasing and capital costs would move the value toward the bull case.