$4.40
$17.70
bear $4.40
base $12.20
bull $17.70
margin of safety $6.50
market price* $21.79
EverQuote runs an online marketplace where people shopping for insurance are matched with insurance carriers and agents, who pay EverQuote for each consumer referral. It is overwhelmingly an auto insurance business: auto providers were 91% of 2025 revenue and 89% of 2024 revenue. Revenue was $692.5 million in 2025 (up 38%) after $500.2 million in 2024 and $287.9 million in 2023. How we measured earnings. We use owner earnings: cash from operations, minus the swings in working capital, minus stock compensation (a real cost to shareholders), minus the capital spending needed just to stand still. On that basis owner earnings were about $1.84 per share in 2025 and $0.98 in 2024, but were negative in every year from 2019 to 2023 (about -$0.87 per share in 2023). The earlier years describe a different business. In June 2023 the company exited its health insurance vertical (selling those assets, including commissions receivable of $30.8 million, for $13.2 million in cash) and cut 175 employees, about 28% of its workforce. We therefore measure the business from 2024 onward and take the midpoint of 2024 and 2025, about $1.41 per share, as the starting level. The 2025 figure includes a roughly $7.8 million non-cash add-back for an $8.2 million legal settlement paid largely with assets; we left it in because the cost is already sunk. For growth, 2025 owner earnings per share rose about 88% from 2024. Our first-year assumption of $1.41 is about 23% below the 2025 actual, so we are not assuming the recent surge repeats. Two things pull the starting level down. First, taxes. In 2025 the company paid only $3.2 million in cash taxes on $61.8 million of pre-tax income because of past losses, but its remaining federal loss carryforward is just $52.9 million, and it can only offset 80% of taxable income each year. We expect tax payments to rise to roughly 25% of pre-tax income (our estimate of federal plus state), which lowers owner earnings by about $0.25 per share, to roughly $1.16. We apply this from year two. Second, the business is cyclical. The filing describes the 2022 and 2023 downturn, when carriers pulled back advertising after weak underwriting results, and revenue fell 29% in 2023 (from $404.1 million to $287.9 million). It also notes that several top carriers remain below their historical peak spending. Concentration adds risk: the two largest customers were 38% and 11% of 2025 revenue, and the largest was 39% of 2024 revenue. Base case, $12.2 per share. Owner earnings of $1.41 in year one, then $1.16 a year after taxes normalize. We include one two-year downturn (years five and six) at half that level, reflecting a slump of the kind seen in 2022 and 2023; the timing is illustrative, but the cyclical pattern is documented. Years 11 through 20 are valued at $1.04 a year, the cycle-adjusted level, and we assume nothing after year 20. We credit no growth. Expanding consumer traffic, more carrier spending and new products may all help, but none is contracted or a repeated multi-year process, so none is counted. We stop at year 20 because the company was incorporated in 2008 and only a couple of profitable years are on record, so nothing in the filings supports assuming the earnings continue beyond that. Bull case, $17.7 per share. The 2025 level of $1.84 holds in year one, then settles at about $1.52 after taxes (2025 adjusted the same way as above) and continues for 20 years with no downturn. This is what happens if carriers keep spending near current levels; revenue in the first half of 2026 was $385.9 million versus $323.3 million a year earlier (up 19%) and operating cash flow was $53.9 million versus $48.6 million, which is consistent with this case but not counted as growth. Bear case, $4.4 per share. Year one is $1.41, since operating cash flow in the first half of 2026 was already $53.9 million. Years two and three repeat the 2023 trough at about -$0.87 per share. Earnings then recover to about $0.81 a year for years four through ten, the tax-adjusted level of 2024, the weaker of the two recent years. From year 11 the earnings fade to zero by year 15 as customer concentration and competition erode the marketplace. The company held $171.4 million in cash at the end of 2025 and had access to up to $60.0 million on a credit line, which would help it get through a slump like that. What could make this wrong. If carriers keep spending at recent levels and no downturn arrives, the bull case is the better guide. If the largest customer (38% of revenue) cut purchases sharply, or a downturn were deeper than 2023, the bear case would be closer.