Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Bloomin' Brands owns and franchises casual and fine-dining restaurants, led by Outback Steakhouse, with Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar. At the end of 2025 the system had 1,460 restaurants: 967 company-owned and 493 franchised. On December 30, 2024 the company sold 67% of its Brazil operations and kept 33%; those restaurants now pay royalties as franchisees. Our figures cover the business as it stands after that sale. What the business earns. We measure owner earnings as operating cash flow, less the swing in working capital, less stock compensation, less the capital spending needed just to keep restaurants current. For 2025 this was about $83 million, or $0.97 per share. For 2024 it was about $84 million ($0.98 per share), and for 2023 about $155 million ($1.61 per share). Spending on remodels and new units was high in 2023 and 2024, and it fell from $282 million to $180 million by 2025. We use the median of the last three years, about $0.98 per share, as the starting level. Earlier years (2019 to 2022) still include Brazil and the pandemic and rebound, so we do not use them to set the level. Growth spending was treated as a cost of staying in business except for a small amount tied to revenue increases. In 2025, owner earnings were roughly flat, down 0.8% from 2024. We start the base case at flat rather than assuming a recovery. The reason not to assume a decline is that cash from operations less capital spending and stock compensation was about $91 million in the first half of 2026, against about $35 million in the first half of 2025 (quarterly report filed August 2026). We treat that as supporting the level, not as a reason to raise it. What the shares are worth. Base case, about $13.10 per share: owner earnings stay near $0.98 per share for ten years, then decline about 3% a year, matching the recent pace at which the company has closed restaurants (86 closed since the end of 2023, against 38 new openings counted in 2025 sales). We give no credit for the turnaround plan announced in November 2025, for the planned remodel of nearly all Outback restaurants by 2028, or for new Outback locations: comparable sales were roughly flat in 2025 (Outback down 0.5%), and none of this has yet shown up as sustained higher earnings. Bear case, about $7.70 per share: comparable sales keep slipping and closures continue, so owner earnings fall about 6% a year for ten years and keep falling afterward. The company has $790 million of debt, all due in 2029, so refinancing at higher interest could take a further share of earnings. Bull case, about $18.00 per share: the Outback remodel program ends in 2028 as planned, spending returns toward the roughly 4% of revenue seen in 2019, and the company uses cash flow to pay down debt as it says it intends. Owner earnings rise to about $1.30 per share by 2029 and then fade only 2% a year. Nothing in the bull case relies on higher sales. Capital spending is charged in full because remodeling never stops in this business, and leverage is reflected in the bear case rather than by subtracting debt from value. The quarterly dividend was suspended in October 2025 to pay down debt. What would make this wrong. Our base case would be too high if traffic declines accelerate or if the roughly $180 million a year of spending needed to keep restaurants current does not fall as remodeling ends. It would be too low if the turnaround lifts sales, which we have deliberately not counted. Two older figures were hard to reconcile: pre-2023 cash flow statements present lease payments differently from the current one, so we excluded operating-lease lines from working capital in those years.