AGNT, Inc. (AGNT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

What the business is. eXp World Holdings runs a cloud-based real estate brokerage that supports agents, brokers and entrepreneurs across North America and international markets. It reports three segments: North American Realty, International Realty and Other Affiliated Services. It books very large revenue ($4.77 billion in 2025, up from $4.57 billion in 2024) but keeps only a thin margin, because most of each sale goes to agents as commission. The key accounting judgement. Agents are paid partly in company stock: an agent equity program ($98.1 million in 2025), an agent growth incentive program ($38.4 million) and employee stock options ($6.5 million), about $143.0 million in total. These amounts are added back in reported operating cash flow because no cash leaves. We treat them as a real cost, because the shares are issued to people who work for the company and the company spent $56.2 million on buybacks in 2025 and $141.1 million in 2024 on repurchases while also paying $30.8 million of dividends in 2025. After that cost, working-capital swings and maintenance capital spending ($9.6 million of purchases of property and equipment in 2025, of which about $9.0 million we treat as maintenance), the company's owner earnings per share were: 2018 -$0.20, 2019 -$0.09, 2020 $0.22, 2021 $0.17, 2022 $0.02, 2023 $0.02, 2024 -$0.11, 2025 -$0.08. Operating cash flow was $118.6 million in 2025 against $191.5 million in 2024 and $209.1 million in 2023, and net losses were $22.7 million in 2025 and $21.3 million in 2024. What we used as the normal level. The 2020 and 2021 results came in the housing-market conditions of those years, which have since changed, so we do not carry them forward. Measured across 2022 to 2025, owner earnings sit around zero, slightly negative at the median. We do not lift the level for recent quarters: in the first half of 2026 operating cash flow was $59.3 million against $75.9 million a year earlier, and the net loss was $7.8 million against $13.3 million, which is not enough to move the level. Owner earnings improved from -$0.11 to -$0.08 per share in 2025, and we assume no improvement in year one. Litigation. In December 2024 the company agreed to pay $34.0 million to settle the U.S. antitrust class action (the Hooper action). The expense was accrued in 2024 without cash leaving, and the cash flow statement shows $17.0 million of it paid in 2025. Settlement approval was still subject to the court as of the 10-K, and industry practice changes following the NAR settlement may keep raising compliance burdens for agents and brokerages. We treat the accrual as a one-time item outside the normal earnings level and reflect the risk in the bear case. Bear case ($0.00 per share). The recent negative owner earnings (-$0.11 in 2024 and -$0.08 in 2025) continue because stock pay to agents stays near $143 million a year while cash flow before that pay keeps shrinking, as it did from $222.8 million in 2022 to $132.1 million in 2025 (before working capital changes). The remainder of the litigation payment adds to this. Under our method, no earnings means no value. We also do not add the company's balance-sheet cash on top of a case value, so this case is $0.00 rather than a positive number. A negative value here would only reflect ongoing dilution, not debt owed. Base case ($0.15 per share). Owner earnings hold at about $0.02 per share, the level of 2022 and 2023, for roughly ten years and then fade. No growth is credited: revenue grew 4.5% in 2025, but we have no contracted or repeatable mechanism showing that turns into owner earnings after the stock pay to agents. The decline in stock compensation from $209.4 million in 2022 to $143.0 million in 2025 has been matched by falling cash flow, so we do not count it as an improvement. Bull case ($2.00 per share). The company's own lever, stock pay to agents declining as it has since 2022 (from $209.4 million to $143.0 million) while cash flow before that pay stabilises near the 2025 level, lifts owner earnings to roughly $0.15 per share within five years and holds it there. That is below the $0.22 reached in 2020 and is not dependent on a market recovery. What would make this wrong. If stock compensation falls sharply without a matching decline in cash flow, value would be well above these figures. If the stock pay to agents is judged to be a pricing choice rather than an economic cost, the business would look far more valuable, but we treat it as a cost because the company issues shares each year and spends cash buying stock back. Details we could not tie down from the filings: how much of the $17.0 million unpaid settlement balance remains in accrued expenses at the latest quarter, and whether the court granted final approval. Margin-of-safety price. At a very small per-share value, with earnings that have been negative for two years and a worst case of zero, the margin-of-safety price is only a small fraction of the base case; it assumes the business condition below is also met.