Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Airbnb runs an online marketplace for short-term stays and experiences. It earns fees from guests and hosts on each booking, holds very little physical capital (capital spending was about $33 million in 2025 on $12.2 billion of revenue), and turns a large share of revenue into cash. Revenue rose from $8.4 billion in 2022 to $12.2 billion in 2025. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings in working capital (mainly cash collected from guests ahead of stays), and subtract stock-based compensation as a real cost ($1.6 billion in 2025, up from $0.9 billion in 2021). That gives owner earnings per share of about $3.18 (2022), $3.03 (2023), $4.88 (2024) and $5.03 (2025). Cash that customers hold on the platform for hosts is reported in financing activities and is not counted. We anchor on the 2023-2025 median, $4.88 per share, because 2021 and 2022 were still shaped by the travel reopening. Owner earnings grew 3.0% in 2025 (from $4.88 to $5.03), and the base case starts at 3%, so no acceleration is assumed. We do not add cash or subtract debt; the company has $2 billion of 0% convertible notes due in 2026, which is a risk considered in the bear case. Base case, about $77 per share. Owner earnings grow 3% in year one, slowing steadily to about zero by year ten, reaching roughly $5.75 per share, and then hold flat for a further twenty years before the story ends. The credit for growth rests on a demonstrated record: revenue has grown every year since 2021 and the marketplace has operated since 2008, including through the 2020 travel collapse. We do not credit new products, new markets, or margin expansion, because none are locked in. Value beyond thirty years is set at zero because nothing in the filings evidences earning power that long. Bear case, about $34 per share. Owner earnings fall back to about $3.00 per share, roughly what the company earned in 2022 and 2023, and stay there for twenty years with no growth. The named risks are regulatory: New York City passed rules in 2023 that the company describes as a de facto ban on short-term rentals, and other cities have passed restrictions. Tax settlements are another: in Italy the company paid about $621 million (576 million euros) to settle 2017-2021, plus further settlements for 2022 and 2023, and says it may face further audits there. Bull case, about $87 per share. Owner earnings start from the 2025 level of $5.03 and grow 5% in year one, tapering to 0.5% in year ten (about $6.59 per share), then hold flat for twenty more years. This assumes the revenue growth of the last three years (10% in 2025) continues to convert into owner earnings at a similar pace. What would make this wrong. Stock-based compensation has risen faster than owner earnings and could keep absorbing cash flow. Cash flow includes interest earned on customer funds ($705 million of interest income in 2025), which would fall if rates fell. Tighter city-level rules on short-term rentals could spread beyond the places already restricted. Sales and profits also depend on travel demand, which fell sharply in 2020. The most recent annual report is for 2025, filed in February 2026. Recent quarterly results were not used to move the earnings level.