$0.00
$3.70
bear $0.00
base $0.00
bull $3.70
margin of safety $1.00
market price* $90.91
Business condition attached to the margin of safety
Xometry reports a full fiscal year in which owner earnings (operating cash flow after removing working-capital swings, stock compensation and maintenance capital spending) are positive.
Xometry runs an online marketplace that connects buyers of custom manufactured parts with a network of machine shops and other suppliers. It earns most of its revenue from the parts sold through the marketplace and about 8% from services to suppliers, mainly advertising on its Thomasnet sourcing platform. Revenue grew from $218 million in 2021 to $687 million in 2025 (26% in 2025) and to $434 million in the first half of 2026, up 39% from a year earlier. Growth has not yet produced owner earnings. We measure owner earnings as operating cash flow, less the swings in receivables, payables and other working capital, less stock-based compensation (a real cost paid in shares), less the part of capital spending needed to keep the business running. On that basis Xometry has lost money every year, per share: about -$2.12 in 2021, -$1.34 in 2022, -$1.12 in 2023, -$0.90 in 2024 and -$0.82 in 2025. The loss is narrowing (from about $63 million in 2022 to about $42 million in 2025), but in 2025 stock compensation of $36 million and capital spending of $30 million together were more than three times the $20 million of operating cash flow before working-capital swings. Earlier years are left out because the per-share figures before 2021 are not comparable. The 2023-2025 median loss is about $44 million a year. The first half of 2026 is better: operating cash flow of $17.5 million after a $25.7 million increase in payables that we treat as timing, which works out to a loss of roughly $15 million for the half, or about $29 million annualized. Two quarters support using that level going forward. Owner earnings improved by about $2.6 million in 2025, and we assume no further improvement beyond the first-half level in the base case, because the evidence is one half-year report filed on August 4, 2026. What Xometry does own is a large cash cushion. In 2026 it raised about $248 million net through a stock offering and received $50 million from a Siemens private placement, and it held $517 million of cash and securities at June 30, 2026 against convertible notes carried at $328.7 million (about $86 million due February 1, 2027 and $250 million due June 15, 2030). Net of the notes that is about $188 million, or $3.30 per share on roughly 57 million shares. Because the company is losing money, we count that cash and charge the yearly losses against it. Bear case, $0 per share: losses continue at the 2023-2025 median of about $44 million a year with no improvement. That uses up the net cash in under five years, leaving nothing for shareholders, and any further funding would dilute them. Base case, $0 per share: losses stay at the first-half 2026 level of about $29 million a year. That would use up the net cash in roughly eight to nine years, so on what is already demonstrated the cash is fully absorbed by the losses and nothing is left for shareholders. We do not credit continued fast revenue growth, higher margins or a move to profit, because none of those has happened yet; gross margin was about 38% in the first half and the marketplace margin slipped to 34.7% in the second quarter from 35.4% a year earlier. Bull case, about $3.70 per share: the narrowing that Xometry has actually produced (about $9 million in 2023, $10 million in 2024, $2.6 million in 2025) continues at $7 million a year from the $29 million first-half level, reaching break-even in about the fifth year and a $13 million yearly profit from year seven, sustained for ten more years. That is worth about $23 million today, added to the $188 million of net cash, giving about $211 million or $3.70 per share. What we left out: management's 2026 outlook (revenue growth of 33-34% and adjusted EBITDA of $60-62 million) is an adjusted measure on a different basis from ours, so we do not use it. Marketplace expansion, new products and the possible use of cash for acquisitions are not counted. Our estimates would be wrong on the upside if profits arrive faster than the three-year record of narrowing losses, and on the downside if the cash is spent on acquisitions rather than kept. The margin-of-safety price is near $1.00 per share, and it applies only once a full year of positive owner earnings has been reported.