WisdomTree, Inc. (WT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

WisdomTree runs ETFs in the U.S. and Europe and earns about 0.36% a year on $162.9 billion (June 2026), including about $37 billion in gold products. Owner earnings ran $31-58 million a year in 2016-2023, then $96 million in 2024 and $126 million ($0.87 a share) in 2025. The jump came from buying out a $17 million-a-year gold payment in late 2023 and from assets rising to $145 billion. Before interest, the business made $143 million in 2025. Base: $160 million a year, about 12% higher, which is less than last year's 30% growth and rests on a full year of the Ceres farmland and Atlantic House acquisitions. No further growth is credited, and earnings fade 1% a year after year ten. The business is worth $2.44 billion, owes a net $0.78 billion (about $1.1 billion of convertible notes due 2029-2031 at 4.5-4.6%, less about $280 million of spare cash), leaving $10.61 a share. Bear: a 2008 or 2022-style drawdown cuts earnings to about $85 million, still 1.7 times interest, recovering only to $120 million, and refinancing in 2030-31 costs about 3.5 points more. Worth $1.67 billion, owing $1.0 billion, leaving $4.25. Bull: $215 million growing 2% a year, with the notes converting into about 53 million shares, for $20.77. Margin of safety price $6: earnings are well evidenced but only two years old, gold and markets can turn quickly, and the debt ranks ahead of shareholders. Near the bear value, a recovery toward base inside four years still implies about 20% a year.