$16.00
$67.00
bear $16.00
base $39.00
bull $67.00
margin of safety $24.00
market price* $74.08
TransUnion is one of the three national credit bureaus in the United States. It sells credit data, analytics and identity/fraud tools to lenders, insurers and other businesses (Financial Services and Emerging Verticals), plus consumer credit-monitoring products (Consumer Interactive). It also operates in Canada, Latin America, the United Kingdom, Africa, India and Asia Pacific; the International segment was $1,011.0 million of $4,576.3 million of 2025 revenue. Revenue has grown every year of the last decade, from $1.7 billion in 2016 to $4.6 billion in 2025, helped by the Callcredit (2018) and Neustar (2021) acquisitions and by the 2021 sale of the Healthcare business. How we measure earnings: we start from operating cash flow, strip out swings in working capital, and subtract stock compensation ($145.6 million in 2025) and the capital spending needed to keep the business running (about $296 million of $326.0 million in 2025). On that basis owner earnings per share were roughly $1.96 (2017), $2.11, $2.76, $2.58, $3.07, $2.51 (2022), $1.64 (2023), $2.42 (2024) and $3.88 (2025). Two items matter. In 2022, $435 million of cash left through other liabilities, mainly taxes on the Healthcare sale gain, and we treat that as timing, not a running cost. In 2025, other liabilities and receivables also absorbed cash ($127.6 million and $119.4 million); we removed these as working capital, which lifts the 2025 figure, so 2025 is not a clean run rate. We anchor on the 2022 to 2025 median, about $2.46 per share, because the business changed with the Healthcare sale and the Neustar purchase and carries its current debt load only since then. Owner earnings grew about 60% in 2025; our base case assumes 4% in year one, well below that, because it does not count on a repeat of the mortgage-driven jump. Acquired-intangible amortization is large (total depreciation and amortization was $574.8 million in 2025). It is a non-cash charge and is added back, but we let it hold the growth path down rather than treating acquired customer relationships as permanent. The 2023 impairment of $414.0 million on the U.K. business is a reminder that acquisitions have not always earned their price; it is also non-cash. Base case, about $39 per share: owner earnings grow 4% a year for three years, 3% for three, then 2% for four, reaching about $3.27 per share in year ten, then hold flat for another fifteen years and end there. The growth credited is the pace this business has already delivered in a steady record of revenue growth through varied conditions; the flat period reflects the credit-bureau position that has persisted. Left out: the pending purchase of a controlling stake in Trans Union de Mexico (not yet closed), new products, share gains and margin expansion, none of which is secured. Bear case, about $16 per share: owner earnings fall back to the $1.64 of 2023 and stay there with no growth, then end after fifteen years. The evidence is that it has happened: 2023 was the trough, mortgage-related price and volume gains in Financial Services (revenue up 17.5% in 2025, led by Mortgage pricing) can reverse, and the company carries $5.1 billion of debt, with $1.1 billion maturing in 2029, so refinancing costs could squeeze cash. Regulation is a live exposure: TransUnion is under a 2023 consent order with the CFPB and FTC (it paid $11.0 million in redress and $4.0 million in penalties), and the earlier CFPB lawsuit over the 2017 order was dismissed in March 2025. Bull case, about $67 per share: the 2025 level of $3.88 per share proves durable, grows 5% a year for five years and 3% for the next five, then holds flat for fifteen years. This assumes pricing and volume gains in Financial Services and Emerging Verticals (up 8.5% in 2025) continue at the pace of the last two years. These are values for the equity as a whole; we do not subtract debt again, since owner earnings are already after interest. What would make this wrong: a sustained fall in credit-data volumes or prices, higher interest costs on the refinancing, or tighter regulation of credit reporting. The margin-of-safety price is $24 per share, well below the middle case, because of the leverage, mortgage sensitivity and regulatory exposure.