Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Verisk sells data, analytics and software to insurers and other risk-sensitive industries, mostly on recurring subscriptions. Its core is the insurance-industry data and standards franchise (policy forms, claims data, catastrophe and property analytics such as Xactimate and its underwriting products). Revenue was $3.07 billion in 2025, growing about 6-8% a year over the last three years. Capital needs are modest, and the company has spent heavily buying back shares (diluted count down from about 163 million in 2021 to 140 million in 2025). How we measure earnings: we start from operating cash flow, strip out swings in working capital, subtract stock compensation as a real cost, and subtract only the maintenance portion of capital spending (growth spending is estimated at about 8.8% of each year's revenue increase). On that basis owner earnings per share were about $4.9 in 2022, $5.5 in 2023, $6.8 in 2024 and $7.9 in 2025. We anchor on about $6.1 per share, the median since the 2022-2023 sale of the Energy business, rather than the 2025 figure: 2025 cash flow was lifted by the timing of cash tax payments and by interest earned on about $1.5 billion of borrowings raised for an acquisition that was later cancelled and repaid in January 2026, neither of which should recur. Growth in 2025 was about 17% but we do not project that. Base case (about $130 per share): owner earnings grow 5% a year for ten years, below the roughly 6-7% revenue growth achieved recently. We credit this because it is the continuation of a multi-year record of subscription renewals and steady price and volume gains from customers that use Verisk data in daily underwriting and claims work, funded from its own cash. After year ten we assume earnings hold flat for another 25 years, reflecting the data and standards position built over decades, and then stop. We do not credit new products, share gains or margin expansion. Year-one growth assumed (5%) is below the trailing actual (about 17%). Bear case (about $57): earnings start lower at about $5.2 (the 2022-2023 level), grow only 2% a year, then decline steadily to zero over 15 years, and we deduct about $5 per share for a possible outcome of the dispute with AccuLynx. Verisk agreed in July 2025 to buy AccuLynx for $2.35 billion and terminated the deal in December 2025 after the FTC had not completed its review; AccuLynx claims the termination was invalid and seeks completion or damages, and the company says it cannot estimate any liability. That $5 is our placeholder, not a company figure. Serial acquisition amortization is also a wasting asset, which is carried by the slower growth and fade rather than by cutting earnings. Bull case (about $165): earnings start at the 2024 level of about $6.8 and grow 7% a year for ten years, matching recent revenue growth, then hold flat for 25 years. Our view: shares are worth roughly $130 in the base case, with a wide gap between bear and bull. The margin-of-safety price is around $85, leaving a substantial cushion against the bear case. What would make this wrong: loss of a major insurer relationship or data source, regulatory or antitrust pressure (the FTC review that stalled AccuLynx signals scrutiny of Verisk's deals), an adverse AccuLynx ruling larger than assumed, or subscription growth slowing well below recent rates. We could not fully reconcile every working-capital line in the filings, so some small items may be excluded from the working-capital adjustment.