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GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC. (ROCK) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$46.00 ComplexityHigh Updated
Analysis Owner's Earnings Geography Growth Strategy Chart Analysis Competitors Circle of Competence
$34.00 $114.00
bear $34.00 base $78.00 bull $114.00 margin of safety $46.00 market price* $37.89
Business condition attached to the margin of safety Operating cash flow turning positive on a sustained basis following the OmniMax acquisition, evidencing that integration costs have moderated as planned.
Gibraltar Industries manufactures building products across three segments: residential building products (mail and package delivery products, roofing accessories, and similar), renewable energy structures (mounting and racking systems for solar installations), and residential and industrial infrastructure products. In February 2026 the company completed the debt-funded acquisition of OmniMax International, a manufacturer of rain-dispersion and other exterior building products, for approximately $1.335 billion — a large transaction relative to Gibraltar's prior size that materially increased leverage and will weigh on near-term reported earnings and cash flow while the two businesses are integrated. Because the acquisition is both recent and large, we have treated the resulting leverage explicitly in the bear case rather than by raising the discount rate: a highly leveraged industrial manufacturer has a materially worse 10th-percentile outcome than an unleveraged one if end-market demand softens at the same time the company is servicing acquisition debt. The base case assumes the OmniMax integration proceeds on a normal timetable, with operating cash flow turning consistently positive as one-time integration costs roll off, and that the combined company's underlying end markets (residential construction and repair, solar installation) grow at a moderate pace consistent with the last several years. The bear case assumes integration costs and elevated leverage persist longer than planned while end-market demand (particularly solar, which has been volatile with policy changes affecting the pace of installations) is weaker than the base case assumes. The bull case assumes the acquisition delivers the cost synergies management has outlined on the timetable described, with end markets performing at the stronger end of their recent range. Given the scale of the OmniMax transaction relative to Gibraltar's prior size, an estimate above the base case would depend on operating cash flow turning clearly positive on a post-acquisition basis.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $3.69 ▼
CONTINUING-OPERATIONS basis (Residential, Agtech, Infrastructure only; Renewables divested/held-for-sale). OE = CFO - WC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO(continuing)=$137,107K; WC movement=+$969K (AR/costs in excess of billings $12,210K, Inventory $(4,933)K, other current assets $516K, AP $7,197K, accrued $(14,021)K); SBC=$8,339K; total capex=$46,413K (segment table), largely due to purchase of two facilities (Agtech capex alone rose from $684K in 2024 to $24,374K in 2025) explicitly described by the company as facility purchases rather than routine maintenance. JUDGMENT CALL: rather than mechanically applying capex_ratio x revenue growth (which understates the one-time nature of a lumpy facility purchase uncorrelated with the year's revenue growth), maintenance capex is normalized to the FY2023-24 average capex/revenue ratio (~1.51%) applied to FY2025 revenue = ~$17,169K; the remaining ~$29,244K is treated as one-time growth/expansion capex for the facility purchases. OE=$137,107-$969-$8,339-$17,169=$110,630K; diluted shares=29,984K; OE/sh=$3.69. Source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912562-26-000025. ANCHOR WINDOW: FY2023-2025 (3 years), median $3.94/sh, used as the valuation anchor because Gibraltar's business was transformed by the 2025 Renewables divestiture -- pre-2023 figures (see FY2016-2022 records) reflect a different, now-divested business mix and are not representative of the continuing Residential/Agtech/Infrastructure business. Also note (not yet reflected in this per-share figure): a subsequent event, the Feb 2, 2026 acquisition of OmniMax International for $1.335B funded largely by ~$1.3B in new term debt, materially changes the company's leverage and forward earnings power -- captured in the growth path and bear-case leverage risk rather than the anchor level, per methodology.
2024 $3.95 ▼
CONTINUING-OPERATIONS basis (recast, excludes divested Renewables segment). OE = CFO - WC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO(continuing)=$169,890K; WC movement=+$20,800K (AR $(2,731)K, Inventory $1,828K, other current assets $(6,634)K, AP $28,419K, accrued $(82)K); SBC=$10,045K; capex=$17,374K; revenue declined YoY on continuing-ops basis ($1,023,359K vs $1,046,998K in 2023) so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=$17,374K; OE=$121,671K; diluted shares=30,769K; OE/sh=$3.95. Source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912562-26-000025 (recast comparative). Reconciliation ties exactly (impairment $6,000K and gain on sale of the electronic locker business $(25,265)K, both continuing-ops non-cash items, confirmed to this year via algebraic reconciliation).
2023 $3.94 ▼
CONTINUING-OPERATIONS basis (2025 10-K recast all prior comparatives to exclude the Renewables segment, classified as held-for-sale/discontinued in 2025). OE = CFO - WC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO(continuing)=$179,706K; WC movement=+$35,728K (sum of AR $400K, Inventory $41,427K, other current assets $408K, AP $(16,412)K, accrued $9,905K); SBC=$8,868K; capex=$13,884K, no reliable prior-year continuing-ops revenue for growth-capex calc so full capex treated as maintenance; OE=$121,226K; diluted shares=30,785K; OE/sh=$3.94. Source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0000912562-26-000025 (recast comparative). Reconciliation vs NI+D&A+other non-cash-maintenance capex ties exactly. This is the first year of the anchor window (see FY2025 record for window rationale).
2022 $2.77 ▼
Whole-company basis. OE = NI + D&A - maintenance capex. NI=$82,406K; D&A=$26,167K; capex=$20,138K; revenue grew $50,183K YoY; approx capex_ratio ~1.5% x growth = ~$753K growth capex, maintenance capex=$19,385K; OE=$89,188K; diluted shares=32,192K; OE/sh=$2.77. Source: FY2022 10-K, accession 0000912562-23-000009. Historical record only; superseded business mix, not used in valuation anchor.
2021 $2.86 ▼
Whole-company basis. OE = NI + D&A - maintenance capex. NI=$75,629K; D&A=$31,966K; capex=$17,705K; revenue grew sharply (+$307,205K YoY, largely pricing/inflation-driven); approx capex_ratio ~1.5% x growth = ~$4,608K growth capex, maintenance capex=$13,097K; OE=$94,498K; diluted shares=33,054K; OE/sh=$2.86. Source: FY2021 10-K, accession 0000912562-22-000009. Historical record only; superseded business mix, not used in valuation anchor.
2020 $2.20 ▼
Whole-company basis. OE = NI + D&A - maintenance capex. NI=$64,566K; D&A=$20,915K; capex=$13,068K; revenue declined YoY vs 2019 so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=$13,068K; OE=$72,413K; diluted shares=32,918K; OE/sh=$2.20. Source: FY2020 10-K, accession 0000912562-21-000007. Historical record only; superseded business mix, not used in valuation anchor.
2019 $2.27 ▼
Whole-company basis. OE = NI + D&A - maintenance capex. NI=$65,091K; D&A=$19,949K; capex=$11,184K; revenue grew $45,067K YoY; approx capex_ratio ~1.1% x growth = ~$496K growth capex, maintenance capex=$10,688K; OE=$74,352K; diluted shares=32,722K; OE/sh=$2.27. Source: FY2019 10-K, accession 0000912562-20-000007. Historical record only; superseded business mix, not used in valuation anchor.
2018 $2.21 ▼
Whole-company basis. OE = NI + D&A - maintenance capex. NI=$63,809K; D&A=$20,374K; capex=$12,457K; revenue grew $15,454K YoY; approx. capex_ratio ~1.2% x growth = ~$185K growth capex, maintenance capex=$12,272K; OE=$71,911K; diluted shares=32,534K; OE/sh=$2.21. Source: FY2018 10-K, accession 0000912562-19-000009. Historical record only; superseded business mix, not used in valuation anchor.
2017 $2.26 ▼
Whole-company basis. OE = NI + D&A - maintenance capex. NI=$62,560K; D&A=$21,690K; capex=$11,399K; revenue declined YoY ($986,918K vs $1,007,981K in 2016) so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=$11,399K; OE=$72,851K; diluted shares=32,250K; OE/sh=$2.26. Source: FY2017 10-K, accession 0000912562-18-000006. Historical record only; superseded business mix, not used in valuation anchor.
2016 $1.47 ▼
Whole-company basis (pre-divestiture business mix; Renewables and other since-divested units included). OE = NI + D&A - maintenance capex (simplified; detailed WC/SBC breakdown not cheaply available pre-2023 filings). NI=$33,675K; D&A=$24,114K; capex=$10,779K, no prior-year comparable revenue basis so full capex treated as maintenance; OE=$47,010K; diluted shares=32,069K; OE/sh=$1.47. Source: FY2016 10-K, accession 0000912562-17-000008. NOTE: this year's business mix differs materially from the current continuing-operations business (see FY2023-2025 records); not used in the valuation anchor.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

Sales geography
Primarily United States nationwide, with additional operations in Canada.
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