$5.65
$13.25
bear $5.65
base $8.60
bull $13.25
margin of safety $5.50
market price* $5.65
OppFi runs an online lending platform for consumers with limited access to mainstream credit. Three Utah-chartered banks — FinWise Bank, First Electronic Bank and Capital Community Bank — originate installment loans through the platform, and OppFi buys most of the economics, services the loans and bears the credit losses. The loans are small and short: about $440 million of principal was outstanding at June 30, 2026, against roughly $1.2 billion of loans made in a year, so the book turns over within months. The bank agreements run to February–April 2029. In April 2026 OppFi simplified its ownership so that all holders own the same class of shares, paid $40.8 million to end a tax-sharing agreement with its founders, and agreed to acquire BNCCORP, owner of BNC National Bank (about $1.1 billion of assets), for roughly $69 million in cash plus about 6.8 million OppFi shares. That purchase still needs approval from bank regulators; closing is targeted for late 2026. We have not included it in the base case. The business comes down to loan revenue minus credit losses. Losses consumed 52% of revenue in 2022, 46% in 2023, 39% in 2024 and 36% in 2025. In the first half of 2026 they rose back to about 42%, about 40% in the second quarter against 32% a year earlier, while new lending fell about 9% as underwriting tightened. Owner earnings are the cash left after credit losses, interest on the funding lines, stock compensation, the technology spending needed to run the platform, and a full corporate income tax. They were roughly breakeven in 2022, $0.48 a share in 2023, $0.81 in 2024 and $1.33 in 2025. 2025 was the best credit year in the company's history, and 2026 is running below it. We use $0.85 a share as the normal earning level: about 2024's result, adjusted for a larger loan book with losses near 40% of revenue, and consistent with the first two quarters of 2026. Accounting judgments that matter: credit losses, including fair-value adjustments on the loan book, are treated as a real, recurring cost. Every share is charged a full corporate tax of about 24%. Until 2026 most of the company's income was taxed in the hands of its founding owners rather than the company, so reported profit overstated what a fully taxed owner keeps, and we corrected every year for this. The 2026 restructuring created about $466 million of tax-deductible goodwill, worth roughly $7.5 million a year in tax savings for 15 years; we value that separately at about $0.84 a share, and deduct the $20 million final tax-agreement payment made in September. Because OppFi's borrowings fund its loan book, interest is treated as a cost of doing business and the borrowings are not subtracted again; the risk they carry is in the bear case. No case credits growth from new marketing, new products or new markets, because none of it is contracted or proven through a downturn. Base case, about $8.60 a share: earnings hold near $0.85 a share for ten years, then fade to zero over the following ten. The fade reflects how the model works. OppFi depends on partner banks charging rates their home state allows to borrowers in other states. Colorado and Iowa have opted out of that federal permission, a federal appeals court upheld Colorado's opt-out in November 2025, and other states are considering the same. OppFi's 14-year record and three renewed bank relationships support a decade; nothing we can point to secures the model beyond that. The business is worth about $8.00 a share, plus about $0.84 of tax savings, less $0.24 for the final tax-agreement payment. Bear case, about $5.65 a share: a consumer credit downturn as deep as the one OppFi went through in 2022, with losses at 52% of revenue for a year and lending cut about 15%, then a year at 2023's 46%. Earnings fall to about $0.35, then $0.60 a share. California's regulator wins its appeal of the February 2026 ruling in OppFi's favor (more than 7% of loans are to Californians), and one bank partner does not renew in 2029 before a charter of OppFi's own is in hand. Earnings recover only to about $0.70, and the model ends after 15 years as more states opt out. On today's leaner cost base the business stays profitable and covers its interest even in a 2022-depth year. The bear value exceeds tangible book value (about $3.60 a share excluding the tax asset, $4.85 including it) because the loan book reprices within months: a downturn costs a year or two of earnings, not the capital. Bull case, about $13.25 a share: losses return to the 36–39% range of 2024–2025, earnings settle near $1.15 a share (below 2025's $1.33), and the BNC National Bank purchase is approved. A charter of OppFi's own is not affected by state opt-outs, so the earnings last longer, fading over twenty years after the first ten. Debt: $276.5 million was drawn at June 30, 2026 on revolving credit lines secured by loans, maturing in tranches in February and September 2029, against about $414 million of shareholders' equity. No covenant pressure is disclosed. What would make this wrong: a federal 36% rate cap; more states opting out with no national charter approved; losses staying above 45% of revenue; or, on the upside, the bank purchase closing and losses returning to 2025 levels. Our previous estimates were prepared on a different basis and are not comparable. What has changed in the business since then is higher credit losses through 2026, the ownership simplification, and the pending bank purchase. The margin-of-safety price is $5.50. We are only moderately sure of the earning level: it has swung from breakeven to $1.33 a share in three years and is falling again in 2026. The worst plausible outcome is the model being shut down state by state with no charter approved, or a national rate cap. Even then, the short loan book would largely collect, repay its lenders and leave owners roughly tangible book, about $3.50–$4.00 a share. If losses settle in the mid-40s, or California and Colorado-style caps spread, the shares are worth roughly $5–6. If the bank charter is approved, they are worth more. The price assumes a three-to-five-year holding period. The dividend was suspended in 2026, but at $5.50 the business earns about 15% of the price each year in owner earnings at the normal level, funding buybacks or rebuilding value. From that price, the base path implies well over 20% a year, and the bear path implies a modest gain.