$5.90
$26.30
bear $5.90
base $16.10
bull $26.30
margin of safety $9.50
market price* $32.88
News Corporation owns a group of information and content businesses: Dow Jones (The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Factiva and other professional information products), Digital Real Estate Services (a controlling stake in Australia's REA Group, plus Move/Realtor.com in the United States), HarperCollins book publishing, and News Media (newspapers in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia). The figures here are per share across the company's combined common equity; the two listed share classes have the same economics per share. What the business earns. We measure owner earnings as operating cash flow, less swings in working capital, less stock-based pay (treated as a real cost), less the capital spending needed just to keep the business running, and less the share of profit that belongs to outside owners of REA Group, since News Corp holds only a majority of it. On that basis, and using the continuing business after the sale of Foxtel in fiscal 2025, owner earnings were about $0.65 per share in fiscal 2023, $0.85 in 2024, $0.94 in 2025 and $1.32 in 2026. We anchor on the four-year median of roughly $0.94 (the middle two years, fiscal 2024 and 2025) rather than the latest, strongest year. Earlier years are not comparable because they include Foxtel. Owner earnings grew about 41 percent in fiscal 2026, driven by higher segment earnings (Total Segment EBITDA rose from $1,415 million to $1,627 million, with Dow Jones and Digital Real Estate Services leading) and the absence of the earlier Foxtel drag. We assume only 3 percent growth in the first year of the base case, well below that, because a single strong year is not a basis for extrapolation. Base case: about $16 per share. Owner earnings start at $0.94 and grow 3 percent a year for ten years. That is below the roughly 4 percent annual revenue growth of the past three years, and it is credited only to the parts of the business with a visible mechanism: Dow Jones, where digital-only subscriptions across its news products reached about 6.26 million in the latest quarter, up 9 percent from a year earlier and where segment earnings have risen from $542 million to $663 million over two years, and the real estate portals. Margin expansion, new products and any recovery in News Media or Book Publishing are not credited; News Media earnings fell to $139 million from $153 million and Book Publishing to $287 million from $296 million in fiscal 2026. After year ten the level is held flat for another twenty years, on the strength of established franchises (Dow Jones, HarperCollins' catalog, REA's Australian property portal) and then ends, since we can name no evidence of durability beyond that. Bear case: about $5.90 per share. Owner earnings fall back to about $0.65, the fiscal 2023 level, then erode 2 percent a year for ten years and fade to zero over the following fifteen. The named pressures are the declining newspaper business, softer book earnings, and exposure to the Australian dollar and British pound (revenue from Australia was about $2.4 billion and from the United Kingdom about $1.3 billion). Leverage is modest, about $2.0 billion of borrowings due between 2029 and 2032, but refinancing at higher rates would cost a little more than today. A further consideration is the U.K. newspaper phone-hacking claims, which cost only $1 million in fiscal 2026 and are partly indemnified by Fox. Bull case: about $26.30 per share. Owner earnings start at the fiscal 2026 level of $1.32 and grow 5 percent a year for ten years, as Dow Jones subscriber growth and property-portal pricing continue as they have for the last two years, and then hold flat for twenty years. Settlement proceeds from the class action involving Anthropic were approved in July 2026 but are of unknown size and are not included. Judgements and open items. Stock-based pay of $77 million and the outside REA Group share of profit of $170 million are both deducted. Impairment and restructuring charges (about $113 million in fiscal 2026) are non-cash or one-off in the reconciliation and are not added to or removed from the level, but recurring restructuring is a reminder that the publishing operations are shrinking in places. Cash held inside REA Group is not counted as available to News Corp shareholders, and no debt or cash is added or subtracted in the valuation. Reported owner earnings reconcile to net income plus non-cash charges within about 2 percent. The case would be wrong to the downside if property listings volumes or advertising weaken sharply, or if Dow Jones subscriber growth stalls; it would be wrong to the upside if fiscal 2026 earnings prove to be the new floor rather than a peak.