$1.00
$9.00
bear $1.00
base $4.50
bull $9.00
margin of safety $2.00
market price* $11.42
Business condition attached to the margin of safety
FDA approval of lonvo-z for hereditary angioedema, plus two consecutive quarters of product sales showing the launch is on track to cover the company's cash operating costs, which ran at roughly $340 million a year in 2025 before working-capital swings.
Intellia Therapeutics develops CRISPR gene-editing medicines that are given once. Its only revenue is collaboration income ($67.7 million in 2025, up from $57.9 million), which includes cost reimbursements and recognized upfront payments from partners such as Regeneron, all earned in the United States. It has no product on the market, and its owner earnings were negative in each of the last five years. How we measure it. We start from operating cash flow, remove working-capital swings, and subtract stock compensation and the capital spending needed to stay in business. On that basis owner earnings per diluted share were about -$3.69 in 2021, -$4.91 in 2022, -$5.50 in 2023, -$5.17 in 2024 and -$3.88 in 2025. The middle of those five years is -$4.91. The 2025 loss narrowed by roughly 25% from 2024, helped by stock compensation falling from $154.3 million to $80.2 million and research spending falling from $466.3 million to $388.9 million. We do not assume that improvement continues, because it reflects cost cutting rather than earnings. Operating cash outflow was $394.7 million in 2025. What the numbers rest on. The most valuable asset is lonvo-z, a one-time treatment for hereditary angioedema. The company reported positive Phase 3 results in April 2026: an 87% reduction in attacks against placebo, with 62% of treated patients free of attacks and off other therapy, and no serious adverse events in the treated group. A rolling application to the FDA began in April 2026, with completion planned in the second half of 2026 and a launch targeted for the first half of 2027. The company reports about $517 million of cash and securities at the end of March 2026 and raised roughly $200 million more in an April 2026 stock offering; it says this funds operations at least into 2028. We estimate about 135 million shares outstanding after the offering (116.3 million at year-end 2025 plus the new shares). Our approach credits only what is already in hand. Sales of a drug that is not yet approved, and any success of the second program, are not credited as earnings. What remains is mainly the cash on the balance sheet, about $5 per share on our estimate, which is being used at roughly $340 million a year in cash operating costs (about $395 million as reported, including working-capital movements). Bear case, about $1.00 per share. Lonvo-z may be approved, but the launch does not cover the roughly $340 million annual cash cost base, and the second program, nex-z for ATTR amyloidosis, keeps consuming cash. In October 2025 the FDA placed a clinical hold on the large MAGNITUDE trial after a patient developed severe liver injury and later died. The hold on the smaller MAGNITUDE-2 trial was lifted in January 2026, and the company reports both holds lifted with screening resumed, but this is a disclosed safety risk. Spending through 2028 leaves only a small residual per share. Base case, about $4.50 per share. The company's cash is worth roughly $5 per share on our share estimate, and we deduct a little for cash burned before spending is aligned to the launch. We give no value to future sales of lonvo-z, nex-z or the technology platform, because none of these earn anything today. Note that the base case is therefore mostly a cash value, not an earnings value. Bull case, about $9.00 per share. Lonvo-z is approved on the visible timetable and launches in the first half of 2027. We credit only the low end of what that could earn: roughly $30 million a year of owner earnings, worth about $500 million at our 6% rate, or roughly $3.70 per share on top of the cash preserved. This is a deliberately restrained number; a successful HAE launch could earn far more, but we have no contract, price or sales record to support a larger figure. What could make this wrong. A strong launch would exceed the bull case; that is the main upside not in our numbers. On the downside, further stock sales would dilute shareholders, as they did in April 2026. Stock compensation is a genuine cost and is deducted in full. Limits. Ten-year history was not available on a consistent basis, so we show five years. The working-capital measure uses the five main operating line items; lease-related lines are excluded and the 2025 cash-flow reconciliation closes to within about 5%. The share count after the April 2026 offering is our estimate.