Monopar Therapeutics (MNPR) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Monopar Therapeutics is a clinical-stage drug developer with no products on the market and no revenue in any year of its history. Its lead candidate is ALXN1840, a once-daily pill for Wilson disease, a genetic condition in which the body cannot clear excess copper. Monopar licensed the drug worldwide in October 2024 from Alexion, a subsidiary of AstraZeneca, after Alexion ended its own program. Alexion's Phase 3 trial (214 patients) met its main goal of copper mobilization, but Alexion stopped development after reviewing separate mechanism studies and speaking with regulators. Monopar says it is assembling a regulatory package for a new drug application to the FDA, with an uncertain outcome. The company also runs radiopharmaceutical cancer programs and had 22 employees as of March 2026. How we value it. Because Monopar earns nothing, its owner earnings (cash from operations, less working-capital swings and stock compensation) are negative every year we measured: about -$4.13 per share in 2022, -$3.04 in 2023, -$2.91 in 2024 and -$1.95 in 2025, or roughly -$14.4 million in total in 2025. The per-share figure has improved only because the share count has grown after the large 2025 stock offering. The company reported no capital spending in 2024 or 2025. The one thing we can point to as real is the cash pile: $140.5 million of cash and investments at December 31, 2025 (audited), against about $2.7 million of payables. Cash used in operations was $6.7 million in the first half of 2026, so we estimate roughly $133.7 million remained by mid-2026. Shares outstanding plus pre-funded warrants (which act like ordinary shares) total about 8.54 million, so the cash is about $15.66 per share before any future spending. We give the drug nothing. No application has been filed, nothing is approved, and the Phase 3 result did not persuade its original developer to continue. Those facts do not count as secured value. Every case therefore asks the same thing: how much of the cash is spent before the story stops, using a burn of about $15 million a year (near the 2025 level of owner earnings) discounted at 6%. Bear: an FDA application fails or a new trial is required, yet the company keeps funding research for five years. Spending of about $63 million in today's dollars leaves roughly $70.5 million, or $8.26 per share. Base: the drug question is resolved within about three years, and spending stops after that. Spending of about $40 million in today's dollars leaves roughly $93.6 million, or $10.97 per share. Bull: the company spends only through its stated funding runway, which management says lasts at least through December 31, 2027, about 1.5 years. Spending of about $21 million leaves roughly $112.8 million, or $13.21 per share. Even here we assign no value to an approval, because none has been earned yet. What could make this wrong. Upside: if ALXN1840 is approved for the roughly 10,000 U.S. patients the company estimates, the value would be well above these figures, but we cannot credit that today. Downside: management could spend the cash faster than we assume, particularly as it plans commercialization, or issue more shares, which would dilute the per-share cash. Potential milestone payments to XOMA Ltd. totaling up to $14.925 million had not been triggered as of March 2026. The company's own assessment found no substantial doubt about continuing operations for at least the next year. The margin-of-safety price, $6.50, sits below even the bear case because the cash is only worth its face value if management does not waste it, and a company with no revenue has a wide range of outcomes on how it spends.