Infleqtion, Inc. (INFQ) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Infleqtion, Inc. (NYSE) is the post-SPAC-merger (closed Feb 12, 2026) combination of Churchill Capital Corp X and ColdQuanta/Infleqtion, a quantum-sensing/quantum-computing hardware and software company selling mainly to government/defense customers (~12% of 2025 revenue from UK government contracts). Because the merger closed after fiscal year-end, this 10-K's tagged XBRL financials are almost entirely the pre-merger CCX shell; Legacy Infleqtion's results are only disclosed narratively -- net losses of $31.8M (2024) and $53.8M (2025), both widening -- so a full owner-earnings build isn't possible from this filing, and management separately disclosed material weaknesses in internal controls. Quantum computing is pre-commercial-scale technology with no track record of profitability. With 216.5M shares and $84.7M pro forma cash, we treat this as speculative optionality: Bear ($0.75/sh) assumes government-contract-only scale with minimal margin; Base ($3.50/sh) assumes ~$150-200M revenue at a 10% owner-earnings margin by year 8 (15% discount); Bull ($9.00/sh) assumes ~$500M revenue at 15% margin by year 10 (14% discount, 3% terminal growth). All three are well below the current $13.72 quote, which looks driven by sector enthusiasm rather than demonstrated earnings power.