Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Quantum Computing Inc. (QCi) builds photonic (light-based) quantum computing hardware. Its Dirac-3 quantum optimization machine is sold and offered through cloud access, and it operates a thin-film lithium niobate photonic chip foundry in leased space at Arizona State University's Research Park in Tempe, Arizona. Revenue has been tiny: $0.68 million in 2025, $0.37 million in 2024 and $0.36 million in 2023. The company has never produced positive cash flow. Cash from operations after stock compensation and equipment spending was negative in every year we measured: roughly $(0.34) per share in 2023, $(0.30) in 2024 and $(0.18) in 2025. Because there is no positive earnings level, we value the business as the cash it holds less what it is likely to spend before it earns anything. What the company owns. At December 31, 2025 QCi held $737.9 million in cash and $790.7 million in investments and accrued interest, about $1,528.6 million in total, mostly raised by selling 86.3 million new shares in 2025 for $1,475.1 million net. Total liabilities were only $20.7 million, and there were 224.2 million shares outstanding. Cash less liabilities is about $1,507.9 million, or $6.73 per share. Interest earned on that cash is not counted separately, because valuing the cash at face already reflects it. The company states it has enough cash for the next 12 months, and we found no doubts raised about that. What drives value. Operating expenses roughly doubled from $26.0 million in 2024 to $51.1 million in 2025, and the company recorded $8.7 million of stock compensation, which we treat as a real cost. We remove working capital swings, and non-cash items are already excluded from cash flow. In 2025 that meant removing a large build in accrued interest receivable and prepaid expenses, and the cash flow statement already excludes an $11.75 million non-cash gain on a derivative. Our rebuild of operating cash flow from net income and its adjustments matched reported cash flow within a small margin in all three years. Base case, $4.26 per share. Annual spending of about $75 million (roughly 1.5 times the 2025 level) for ten years, discounted at 6%, costs about $552 million in today's money, leaving about $956 million. After year ten we assume the company stops spending and the remaining cash is worth its face value. We credit no revenue growth or profits. Revenue reached $9.2 million in the first half of 2026 versus $0.1 million a year earlier, which is encouraging, but we do not know what it earns after costs, and it comes from a new product, so we leave it out. Bear case, $2.17 per share. Spending ramps to $90 million next year, $120 million the year after, then $150 million a year through year ten, about three times the 2025 level. That is plausible given that opex doubled in 2025, the company is planning a second chip facility, and it has no history of positive cash flow. That costs about $1,021 million in today's money, leaving about $487 million. Bull case, $5.09 per share. Spending holds at about $50 million a year, the 2025 level, for ten years, costing about $368 million and leaving about $1,140 million. Even here we credit no profits, since no contract or margin evidence supports them. What would make this wrong. The cases assume unspent cash keeps its face value. If management spends far more than $150 million a year, acquires other companies, or issues more shares at low prices, per-share value falls. If the Dirac-3 and chip foundry business turns into a real profit stream, value would exceed our bull case, but nothing in the filings yet shows that. We also could not separate 2026 interest income from operating spending using the filings available, so our spending levels rest on 2025 audited figures. Margin-of-safety price. The margin-of-safety price is $1.75, about 20% under the bear case, because no earnings support the value and the outcome depends on how management spends the cash.