D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

D-Wave Quantum builds and sells access to quantum computers. Its established product is the annealing quantum computer, which it makes available mainly through a cloud service (subscription and usage revenue) and, less often, as a system sold outright to a customer, plus professional services. In January 2026 it bought Quantum Circuits, Inc., a developer of gate-model (error-corrected) quantum computers, for about $250 million in cash plus roughly 10.4 million shares, to add a second technology. The business does not earn money today. Owner earnings (operating cash flow less working-capital swings, less share-based pay, less maintenance capital spending) were negative every year we can measure: about -$0.20 per share in 2020, -$0.30 in 2021, -$0.48 in 2022, -$0.58 in 2023, -$0.42 in 2024 and -$0.25 in 2025. Revenue was $8.8 million in 2024 and $24.6 million in 2025, but about $16.8 million of the 2025 revenue came from Germany and was largely a one-time system sale that had been prepaid the year before; the first half of 2026 produced only $5.9 million. Cash used in operations doubled to $73.5 million in the first half of 2026 from $34.6 million a year earlier, and share-based pay ran at about $19 million in the half. On the same basis, first-half 2026 owner earnings were roughly -$97 million, about -$195 million a year or -$0.52 per share. The most recent full year (-$0.25) looked better than 2024, but the acquisition of Quantum Circuits and higher spending have already reversed that, so we start from the current run rate, not the 2025 figure. What the shares are worth therefore comes almost entirely from the cash on the balance sheet less the cost of using it. At June 30, 2026 the company held about $296.6 million of cash plus $249.6 million of marketable securities (about $546 million, or $1.47 per share on 372.0 million shares). It has no meaningful conventional debt. Its one debt-like item is a Canadian government innovation-fund loan (received C$40 million) that is repayable only out of revenue once annual revenue passes $70 million and is forgiven if that level is not reached; the company estimated its fair value at $18.8 million at the end of 2025, about $0.05 per share, and we deduct that amount in every case. Leases, payables and deferred revenue are already reflected in operating cash flow and are not deducted again. How we built the cases. We credit only what is evidenced: the cash, the contracted backlog ($40.7 million of unsatisfied contracts at June 30, 2026, up from $13.4 million at the end of 2025) and the demonstrated spending rate. We give no credit for future quantum-computing demand, new customers, new products, a working error-corrected computer, or margin improvement, because none of these is signed, contracted or already delivered; nothing in the filings shows the business reaching positive owner earnings, so the business itself is worth less than nothing and the shares are worth what remains of the cash after it is spent. Each case is one story about how long the current spending continues, discounted at 6%. Bear (about $0.12 per share). Spending continues at the current -$195 million a year for roughly 2.75 years, with no earnings power beyond the contracted revenue, and is then wound down. The business is worth about -$1.29 per share (the present value of that burn), the company holds $1.47 per share of cash and owes $0.05, leaving about $0.12. A single more expensive year, or a share issue to fund the burn, would take this to zero; the shares cannot be worth less than nothing because there is no debt beyond the contingent loan. Base (about $0.46 per share). The same spending continues for about two years, roughly the period over which the $40.7 million backlog is delivered, after which spending is cut back to what revenue supports. The business is worth about -$0.96 per share, cash is $1.47 and debt $0.05, leaving about $0.46. The company's own history supports cost flexibility (cash used in operations fell from $60.6 million in 2023 to $42.6 million in 2024) but it also shows the opposite direction in 2025 and 2026, so we credit only a two-year period at the current rate. Bull (about $0.92 per share). Spending runs at the current rate for about one year and is then aligned with contracted and recurring revenue. The business is worth about -$0.50 per share, cash $1.47 and debt $0.05, leaving about $0.92. We do not credit growth beyond the backlog because the company has no multi-year record of self-funded, repeatable expansion. Accounting judgements. Share-based pay ($22.7 million in 2025) is treated as a real cost even though it is non-cash. The very large 2025 net loss of $355 million was mostly a $270.5 million non-cash swing in the value of warrants, which have now all been exercised or redeemed and do not affect owner earnings. Goodwill of $342.6 million was created by the Quantum Circuits deal; it is a sunk purchase price and was not treated as ongoing cost. What would make this wrong. The shares could be worth more if the company shows that revenue can cover most of its spending (for example a run of system sales like the 2025 German sale) or if it demonstrates an error-corrected gate-model computer that customers pay for; neither is contracted today. They could be worth less if spending keeps rising with the gate-model build-out, or if the company issues shares to fund losses, which dilutes the per-share cash. The company's shares previously fell below the NYSE $1.00 minimum three times, most recently in October 2024, and regained compliance each time; that is not a current issue. We could not reconcile the first-half 2026 spending increase to the acquisition's specific costs from the filings available, so the current run rate may include one-off deal and integration costs.