$5.80
$14.20
bear $5.80
base $10.40
bull $14.20
margin of safety $6.00
market price* $8.73
Goldman Sachs BDC is a publicly traded, externally managed lender that makes mostly senior secured loans to mid-sized U.S. companies, many owned by private equity sponsors. It is managed by Goldman Sachs Asset Management and pays out most of its income as distributions ($1.88 per share in 2025). Its earnings are the interest it collects, less its own borrowing costs, management and incentive fees. How we measured earnings. Reported operating cash flow for a lender like this mostly reflects loans bought and repaid (FY2025 cash flow of $325.7 million includes about $211 million of net portfolio sales), so it says little about earning power. We instead used net investment income after taxes, less interest that is added to loan balances rather than paid in cash (payment-in-kind interest). Per share this was $2.17 (2021), $2.03 (2022), $1.98 (2023), $1.72 (2024) and $1.28 (2025). There is no stock compensation or capital spending to deduct. The 2021 figure includes a one-time boost from amortizing the purchase discount created by the 2020 merger. What has been happening. Earnings per share have fallen every year. Net investment income dropped from $252.6 million in 2024 to $181.6 million in 2025, and the second quarter of 2026 produced $43.1 million against $45.4 million a year earlier. Realized losses on loans were $71.8 million in 2023, $158.0 million in 2024 and $123.1 million in 2025, and net asset value per share has slipped from $15.86 at the end of 2021 to $12.06 at June 30, 2026. Total investments at cost fell from $3.67 billion to $3.40 billion during 2025. Loans on non-accrual (not paying interest) were 2.8% of the portfolio at cost at year-end 2025, down from 4.5% a year earlier, an improvement but still meaningful. Distributions of $1.88 per share in 2025 exceeded net investment income of $1.57 per share, so part of the payout is not covered by current income. Base case: $10.40 per share. Owner earnings level of $1.20 per share, which reflects 2025 ($1.28) and the most recent quarter rather than the higher 2023 to 2024 years, which reflected conditions that have since faded. Actual earnings growth in 2025 was about -26%, so no growth is assumed. We credit none: the company must distribute most of its income and cannot fund expansion from retained earnings, and shrinking assets are the demonstrated trend. Instead, earnings decline about 5% a year, roughly the pace at which net asset value per share has fallen since 2021, as credit losses and payouts above income erode the asset base that produces the income. Bear case: $5.80 per share. Owner earnings of about $0.95 per share, near the annualized first half of 2026, declining about 9% a year, close to the recent six-month drop in net asset value (from $12.64 to $12.06). The company also uses substantial borrowing, so credit losses hit shareholders harder; the 2024 and 2025 realized losses show this is not hypothetical. Bull case: $14.20 per share. Owner earnings of $1.40 per share, close to the second quarter 2026 run rate before non-cash interest, declining only about 3.5% a year as non-accrual loans keep coming down, as they did in 2025. What would make this wrong. Losses could prove smaller than 2024 and 2025, leaving assets stable and earnings above our base case; or larger, if the non-accrual loans rise again. Interest rate changes move the income on floating-rate loans. As a lender that borrows, we do not subtract debt separately because interest is already deducted from earnings, and leverage is instead reflected in the lower bear case. Our latest quarterly data was the June 30, 2026 report; the full 2025 annual report was the source for the per-share history.