Evommune, Inc. (EVMN) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Evommune is a clinical-stage biotech (Palo Alto, IPO'd Nov 2025) developing MRGPRX2/IL-18-targeted therapies for chronic inflammatory disease. No product revenue (only $7M-$13M collaboration/license revenue 2024-2025); net losses of $66.8M (FY24) and $68.9M (FY25), cash burn $58M-$76M/yr and rising SBC ($1.7M to $5.9M to $8.1M in H1'26) deducted as a real dilutive cost. Owner earnings are deeply negative - a 'too hard' business for a conventional owner-earnings DCF. In June 2026 lead asset EVO756 failed Phase 2b CSU, raising pipeline risk, though the company holds ~$300M cash/investments (runway into 2028) and awaits Phase 2b AD data Q3 2026. We anchor value near net cash/book value (~$7.65/share at 6/30/26): bear ($5) assumes continued burn erodes the balance sheet, base ($8) approximates net cash/investments per share, bull ($17) ascribes modest pipeline option value. Given binary clinical-trial risk, a heavy ~45% margin-of-safety discount is applied off the base case.