Corvus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CRVS) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Corvus Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biotech with no approved products and no revenue. Its lead drug, soquelitinib, is in a registrational Phase 3 trial for relapsed peripheral T cell lymphoma and in an early-stage trial for atopic dermatitis. Two other candidates, ciforadenant and mupadolimab, are in earlier trials. Greater China rights to all three are licensed to Angel Pharmaceuticals, a company Corvus helped form in 2020. The business has never produced positive owner earnings. On our measure (operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, stock compensation and capital spending) it lost about $0.90 a share in 2021, $0.67 in 2022, $0.47 in 2023, $0.44 in 2024 and $0.53 in 2025. There is no earnings stream to value, and none of the drug programs meets our bar for being counted: none has an approval, a partner payment or a contracted revenue stream behind it. A Phase 3 trial that is still enrolling is a hope, not something already secured, so we credit the pipeline with $0 in every case. What remains is the cash the company owns and how much of it the planned trials will consume. Cash position. At December 31, 2025 Corvus held $56.8 million of cash and securities. On January 23, 2026 it raised $189.4 million net by selling 9,085,778 shares at $22.15. Together that is $246.2 million. Operating cash outflow in the first half of 2026 was $25.8 million, so we estimate roughly $220 million remained at mid-year. Management says the money funds its programs into the second quarter of 2028, which implies a spending pace of roughly $105 million a year, well above the recent pace; quarterly net losses are rising (about $13.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, about $18.0 million in the second). Shares outstanding were about 84.1 million in August 2026, plus 8.3 million pre-funded warrants outstanding at year end, or about 92.4 million in all. Employee options (14.0 million outstanding at year end) would add some dilution that we have not modeled. Bear case, $0.35 per share: the company spends at the pace implied by its own runway guidance, about $105 million a year, for the roughly 21 months to mid-2028, using up about $184 million and leaving about $36 million with no drug to show for it. Failure of the PTCL trial would leave the company with no lead asset. Base case, $0.95 per share: spending averages about $75 million a year, between the recent pace and the guided pace, so about $131 million is used by mid-2028 and about $89 million of cash remains. The drugs add nothing. Bull case, $1.40 per share: spending stays near the first-half 2026 pace of about $52 million a year, so about $91 million is used and about $129 million remains. We do not build in an approval or a licensing payment because none is in evidence, so the upside from a successful Phase 3 is not in our numbers. What we left out. 2025 operating cash burn was $32.8 million although net loss was only $15.3 million; the difference is a $27.1 million non-cash gain on revaluing warrants, which does not affect cash. Corvus's 2020 China joint venture, Angel, is carried through equity-method losses that also do not affect cash; we assign it no value. What would make us wrong: positive Phase 3 data in relapsed T cell lymphoma, or a partnership with upfront cash, would make the pipeline worth far more than any of our cases. Conversely, a larger-than-planned trial program would leave less cash than our bear case. The company will need to raise more money in the future, per its filing, which would dilute existing shares. The margin-of-safety price of $0.35 is set at about the bear-case value because the outcome is binary and the company holds cash that it is committed to spending.