$19.00
$73.00
bear $19.00
base $57.00
bull $73.00
margin of safety $34.00
market price* $41.94
BankUnited, Inc. is the holding company for BankUnited, N.A., headquartered in Miami Lakes, Florida. It makes commercial loans and takes commercial and consumer deposits through 55 banking centers in Florida, New York, Texas and Atlanta (as of December 31, 2025). Net income was $268.4 million in 2025, $232.5 million in 2024 and $178.7 million in 2023; diluted earnings per share were $3.53, $3.08 and $2.38. How we measured earnings. Bank cash flow statements are noisy, so we rebuilt the figure. Starting from operating cash flow, we removed swings in other assets and liabilities, removed the proceeds from selling loans held for sale (that is loan-book liquidation, not earnings, and the matching loan originations sit in investing activities), deducted stock compensation, and deducted the provision for credit losses as a real recurring cost even though it is non-cash (it was $67.9 million in 2025, and net charge-offs of about $71.7 million were in line). Capital spending is not shown as its own line, so we used depreciation on premises, equipment and software (about $17 million a year, with net premises flat at about $61 million) as the maintenance estimate. Resulting owner earnings per diluted share: $3.86 (2021), $4.53 (2022), $1.35 (2023), $2.55 (2024) and $3.47 (2025). Depreciation and amortization of $51.0 million in 2025 is larger than the premises figure; the balance relates to other assets, including operating-lease equipment, whose earnings we treat as a slowly wasting stream rather than permanent, which is why we do not credit growth beyond retained earnings. Earnings level. We used the median of 2022 to 2025, about $3.01 per share. This window spans the 2023 trough and the 2025 recovery. We excluded 2021 because it was flattered by an unusually low earnings base share count and a large release of loan-loss reserves that year (the 2021 diluted count was 90.4 million shares versus 73.5 million by 2023). Trailing results were not used to set the level. Growth reconciliation. Owner earnings per share grew about 36% in 2025 (from $2.55 to $3.47). Our base case assumes just 2% a year for ten years, well below that. The only growth credited is retention: the company paid dividends of $91.9 million on $268.4 million of net income in 2025, so about two-thirds of earnings are kept and reinvested, and our 2% is far below what that mechanism has produced in recent years. We left out share gains, new markets, margin expansion and buybacks (the share count has been broadly flat since 2023 at roughly 74 million diluted shares). Bear case, about $19 per share. Earnings power stays at the 2023 level of $1.35 per share for the whole period, with no recovery, and credit losses run higher. Evidence for the risk is in the filings: net charge-offs rose to 0.30% of average loans in 2025 from 0.16% in 2024, and the allowance covered 59% of non-performing loans versus 89% a year earlier. A repeat of 2020, when the provision was $178.4 million versus $67.9 million in 2025, is the kind of stress we priced in for two years. Leverage sits in this case rather than in the discount rate. Base case, about $57 per share. Owner earnings start near $3.01, grow 2% a year for ten years, then stay flat. A regional commercial bank's deposit franchise has persisted across the fifteen years of filings we reviewed, so we do not fade earnings to zero, but we credit no growth after year ten because nothing named and evidenced supports it. Bull case, about $73 per share. Owner earnings start at the 2025 level of $3.47 and grow 3% a year for ten years, then stay flat. This requires the 2025 recovery to hold and retention of earnings to compound at a slightly better rate; no acquisition, expansion or rate assumptions are included. What could make this wrong. Rising non-performing loans would lower all cases. Our reserve-based deduction treats the provision as a cost; if actual losses run well above 2025 levels, the base is too high. Six-month 2026 net income of $132.5 million versus $127.2 million a year earlier is consistent with the base, but is not used to move the level. Anything we could not tie to a filing was left out; the capital spending figure is an estimate because the cash flow statement does not break it out. Margin-of-safety price. The margin-of-safety price is about $34 per share, roughly 40% below the base value, reflecting a credit-sensitive lender whose downside case is materially below the base.