FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC /DE/ (FCNCA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

First Citizens BancShares is a family-controlled Raleigh bank whose owner earnings per share rose from roughly $19 in 2016 to $165 in 2025, almost entirely through two purchases of distressed institutions, CIT in 2022 and Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, plus heavy buybacks. That record overstates repeatable earning power. Profit in 2023 was inflated by a one-time, largely untaxed $9.8 billion bargain-purchase gain on the SVB deal; excluding it leaves about $110 per share of real 2023 earnings. Recent results are further cushioned by purchase-accounting income that mechanically fades ($481 million in 2024, $251 million in 2025) and by repurchases funded from surplus capital now nearly drawn down to management's 10-10.5% capital target. We therefore normalize earning power near $185 per share. The base case grows that 6% a year on a 12.5% return on equity, counting only the cash left after funding balance-sheet growth, discounted at 10%: about $2,186. The bear case assumes charge-offs rise well above today's unusually low 29 basis points, accretion income ends, and returns fall to 10%, giving roughly $1,291, about three-quarters of book value. The bull case assumes the efficiency ratio reaches the mid-50s with returns near 14%: about $3,646. The margin-of-safety price is anchored on the bear case rather than the base, because the post-SVB mix of venture and technology lending, general office property, equipment finance and factoring has never been tested through a full downturn here, funding is more rate-sensitive than a traditional branch deposit base, and a $33 billion note owed to the FDIC matures in 2028. At roughly 85% confidence in that floor, a 25% discount puts the margin-of-safety price near $960. Capital and liquidity are strong, and the family's long habit of acquiring troubled banks cheaply is an option our estimates assign no value to.