Beam Global (BEEM) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Beam Global, based in San Diego, designs and builds self-contained, solar-powered electric-vehicle chargers (the EV ARC), which it sells with battery storage products. Since buying Amiga in Serbia in October 2023 (now Beam Europe), and Telcom in 2024, it also makes streetlights, steel poles and electrical cabinets for European customers. Revenue climbed from $9.0 million in 2021 to $67.4 million in 2023. It then fell to $49.3 million in 2024 and $28.2 million in 2025, mostly because U.S. federal buying stopped: federal agencies were 32% of 2024 sales but only 4% in 2025. In 2025, 42% of sales came from outside the U.S. and 14% from California state and local agencies. The first half of 2026 brought in $11.7 million, compared with $13.4 million a year earlier. What the business earns. We measure the cash an owner could take out each year. We start with operating cash flow, strip out swings in inventory, receivables and payables, deduct stock-based pay as a real cost, and deduct the capital spending needed to keep the business running. On that measure Beam Global has lost money in every one of the last ten years (2016 to 2025), at between $0.74 and $1.33 per share each year. We base our view on 2023 to 2025, the years that include the Serbian businesses. In those years the cash drain was steady at about $13.7 to $14.7 million a year, or about $0.94 per share at the midpoint. It grew slightly worse in 2025 (-$14.0 million against -$13.7 million). The first half of 2026 ran at about -$6.8 million, which is the same pace. The 2025 accounting loss of $27.0 million included a $10.8 million write-off of goodwill from the Serbian acquisitions. That is a non-cash charge and is not counted against yearly earnings here. It does show that the acquisitions have not earned what was paid for them. Gross margin did improve in the second quarter of 2026, to about 18% on $8.6 million of sales, and the operating loss narrowed to $3.0 million from $4.5 million a year earlier. But the company is still losing money, and a partial improvement is not a demonstrated earning power we can value. How we valued it. A business is worth the cash it will produce for its owners. Beam Global has not yet produced any, and nothing on record points to a specific, secured source of future profit. The backlog was $6.0 million at the end of 2025, less than three months of sales. A $100 million supply-chain credit line from OCI Group has never been drawn. The GSA federal purchasing contract now runs to 2030, but federal agencies are barely using it. Hoped-for growth in electric vehicles in Europe and the Middle East is a market forecast, not a result the company has already delivered. So we give no value to future operating profits. The losses are paid for by selling new shares: $7.8 million in 2025 and $5.2 million in the first half of 2026, with about $10.0 million still available under the current share-sale program. The company had only $1.0 million of cash on June 30, 2026. The shares are therefore worth what the assets would bring in if the business had to be sold, scaled back or wound down, minus what it owes and minus the losses and dilution along the way. On June 30, 2026 the company held about $6.7 million of receivables, $8.3 million of inventory, $12.0 million of property and equipment (mainly the Serbian plant) and $6.6 million of acquired intangible assets. It owed $17.9 million, of which $12.1 million is due within a year. There are about 22.3 million shares. Bear case (about -$0.25 per share). Losses continue at about $13 to $14 million a year, the share-sale program runs down, and the business must be wound down or sold in a hurry. Receivables are collected at about 75 cents on the dollar, inventory at about 25 cents and plant and equipment at about 30 cents. The acquired technology and trade names are worth nothing. On those figures the assets would bring in about $6 million less than the company owes. In this case the company owes more than it is worth, by roughly $0.25 a share, and shareholders would receive nothing. Base case (about $0.05 per share). Losses continue at about the current rate for another year to eighteen months, paid for mainly by selling more shares. Then the company is sold or cut back to what can pay its way. Receivables are collected in full less 10%, inventory at half of book and plant and equipment at half of book, with nothing for intangible assets. The net amount left is only a few million dollars, shared among more shares than exist today because of the dilution along the way. Bull case (about $0.25 per share). The narrower second-quarter losses hold, and an acquirer takes over the Serbian manufacturing and the product lines at close to book value for the working capital and the plant. The acquirer also pays a little for the patented EV ARC and energy-storage technology, after about six more months of losses. Even this favourable outcome gives little per share, because ten years of losses and share issuance have left little behind each share. The value to shareholders could turn out higher if Beam Global shows that it can cover its costs. The test would be several quarters of positive operating cash flow after stock-based pay and equipment spending, without selling new shares. That would give a real stream of earnings to value. The main risks run the other way: the cash balance is thin, the company depends on selling new shares, U.S. government orders have fallen sharply, and the 2025 goodwill write-off shows that the acquired businesses are worth less than was paid for them. Figures for years before 2022 use the stock-compensation total the company reported. Small non-cash stock awards to outside service providers in those years were not separately confirmed, but they would not change the conclusion.