Yext, Inc. (YEXT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Yext sells subscription software (Answers/search, Listings, Pages, Reviews, and, since the August 2024 purchase of Hearsay Social, a client-engagement platform for financial advisers) that helps businesses control how they appear in online search and AI answers. Roughly $441M of annual recurring revenue at July 2026. What the record shows: revenue grew to $446.6M in fiscal 2026 (year ended Jan 2026), but only because Hearsay was added; the first half of fiscal 2027 was $219.0M versus $222.6M a year earlier, and dollar-based net retention is 96%, so the installed base shrinks slightly each year before new sales. Owner earnings (operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less maintenance capital spending) were negative every year through fiscal 2023, then $18.8M (fiscal 2024), $1.9M (fiscal 2025) and $39.7M (fiscal 2026). Stock compensation of $45-50M a year has consumed almost all of the reported cash flow, so we treat it as a real cost. Capital spending is negligible. Level used: the three years since cost cuts (fiscal 2024-26) have a median of about $19M; the first half of fiscal 2027 (operating cash flow $45.4M, stock compensation $20.0M) points somewhat higher, so we use about $22M a year, or about $0.21 per share on roughly 105M shares. That share count reflects buybacks: $185M repurchased through fiscal 2026 and a further tender offer of up to $140M in March 2026. The year-over-year growth in owner earnings last year (from $1.9M to $39.7M) is a rebound, not a trend, and we assume none of it repeats. Purchase of Hearsay created intangibles that are amortized (non-cash); with revenue flat to falling we do not credit any growth to offset that. Base case: about $2.50 per share. Owner earnings of roughly $22M shrink about 2% a year indefinitely, in line with 96% retention partly offset by new sales to enterprise customers. No growth is credited: the enterprise cohort is accelerating per management, but that is not yet contracted or proven over years. Bear case: about $0.45 per share. Retention slips so revenue and owner earnings fall about 10% a year from a lower base of $10M (near fiscal 2025's weak level). The company added a $150M senior secured term loan (maturing May 2030) to fund buybacks, against $86.8M cash; interest is a fixed drag and refinancing in 2030 would be difficult if earnings fall. In this case the debt is larger than the value of the equity stream, so shareholders could be left with little. Bull case: about $4.70 per share. Owner earnings hold at the fiscal 2026 level of about $35M for ten years (a level actually reached) and then decline 2% a year, if the enterprise customer growth management describes offsets churn. What could make this wrong: management's lower stock-compensation run rate (about $40M annualized) proving permanent would lift owner earnings; conversely, customer losses to AI-driven search tools or heavier hiring to defend the business would lower them. The June 2026 GoShine acquisition adds an unquantified item we could not evaluate from the filings. The margin-of-safety price of about $1.10 reflects a shrinking, leveraged, small business with a wide range of outcomes, needing a large margin of safety.