SOLITARIO RESOURCES CORP. (XPL) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Solitario Resources Corp. is a Colorado-based mineral exploration and royalty company (NYSE American: XPL; TSX: SLR) that has been exploring for precious and base metals since 1993. It has never brought a mine into production. Its strategy is to acquire exploration-stage mineral properties, advance them as far as it can - often through joint ventures with larger partners - and then sell, license, or convert its interest into a royalty once a project reaches the development stage. Solitario's core assets today are: a carried (free-ride) interest in the Florida Canyon zinc-lead-silver project in Peru, which Nexa Resources is funding and advancing; a 50% joint-venture interest in the Lik zinc deposit in Alaska with Teck Resources - a substantial zinc resource (roughly 20 million tonnes combined across both deposits, at grades near 8% zinc) for which no reserves or independent economic study have yet been published; its own Golden Crest gold exploration project in South Dakota, where it has been actively drilling; and two newly acquired early-stage properties in Colorado, Cat Creek and Bright Angel, picked up in the third quarter of 2025. Solitario has essentially no revenue. As the company itself says, it has occasionally received meaningful proceeds from selling a property or a royalty in the past, but such events are infrequent and unpredictable, not a reliable source of income. In every one of the last eight fiscal years it spent more cash on operations than it took in - the shortfall has run from roughly $1 million to $5 million a year, funded by drawing on, and periodically replenishing through new share issuances, a pool of cash and short-term investments that stood at about $25 million at the end of 2025, against almost no debt. Because owner earnings (operating cash flow after removing working-capital swings and non-cash stock compensation, less what it costs to maintain existing claims) have been consistently negative - averaging roughly negative $0.047 per share a year over 2018-2025 - a disciplined cash-flow valuation of Solitario's exploration business produces a negative value. That is the honest, if unusual, result of applying an owner-earnings lens to a company that funds ongoing losses by issuing shares rather than by earning money. We treated a small amount of stock issued in 2025 ($53 thousand) to satisfy a mineral lease payment the same way as stock compensation, since it is a real, dilutive cost paid in shares rather than cash. Our base case assumes Solitario continues exploring at roughly its historical rate for the next decade - continued drilling at Golden Crest, Cat Creek and Bright Angel, and continued but unmonetized advancement of Florida Canyon and Lik by its partners - without any of the 'infrequent' monetization events the company describes actually occurring in the next ten years. After that, we assume spending fades toward a lower, minimum level needed to hold the claims and keep the company running, rather than assuming it continues forever or stops entirely; a portfolio of speculative exploration claims does not justify a perpetual growth annuity. This produces a base-case value of about negative $0.40 per share. Our bear case assumes exploration spending runs somewhat heavier (three properties now self-funded rather than one or two), the ongoing social/exploration negotiations around Florida Canyon in Peru continue to add friction without progress, and none of the projects are ever monetized; the company keeps issuing shares to fund the shortfall until its investment pool is exhausted, then sharply curtails spending. That comes to about negative $0.48 per share. Our bull case is the one scenario in ten where either Teck moves the Lik project toward a development decision or transaction, or Nexa advances Florida Canyon to the point of a royalty conversion or a buyout of Solitario's interest - a meaningful, lump-sum monetization event, consistent with the kind of occasional, significant payday Solitario has described from past property and royalty sales. Even crediting a substantial value to such an event, once discounted, the ongoing annual cash burn largely offsets it, leaving the bull case only modestly positive, at roughly $0.05 per share. Neither Solitario's 10-K nor the technical report on Lik discloses an independent economic valuation - there is no feasibility study or preliminary economic assessment on file for either flagship project - so this figure is a reasoned estimate of a plausible payout, not a number drawn from company disclosure. Because our base-case estimate of intrinsic value is at or below zero, our method does not support a positive margin-of-safety price today. We would revisit that conclusion if Solitario or a partner published credible project economics showing a path toward self-funding operations, or if a transaction at Lik or Florida Canyon converted the carried or joint-venture interest into cash or a royalty stream - at that point the shares would be priced on a more conventional cash-flow basis rather than as a claim on exploration optionality. There is no indication in the filings of Chinese ownership or control, cannabis or cryptocurrency operations, or a going-concern qualification. The company maintains real, ongoing exploration operations - three active joint ventures, several company-funded exploration programs, and a small permanent staff - rather than being a non-operating shell, and its shares continue to trade on NYSE American and the Toronto Stock Exchange with no indication of delisting risk. Its balance sheet carries essentially no debt, so none of the negative value in our estimates stems from leverage; it stems entirely from the ongoing cost of exploration exceeding what the properties currently generate.