United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) is not an operating company. It is an exchange-traded commodity pool, run by United States Commodity Funds LLC, that holds near-month NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures contracts (gasoline for delivery in New York Harbor) and keeps the rest of its money in Treasury bills, money-market funds and cash as collateral. Its units are designed to track the daily percentage move in that benchmark gasoline futures contract, plus interest on the collateral, less expenses. There are no customers, products, plants or retained profits to reinvest; a unit is simply a slice of the fund's net assets. Large broker-dealers can create or redeem units in baskets at net asset value (NAV) each day, which keeps the market price close to NAV. Because of that, we value a unit at what it can be redeemed for rather than by discounting a stream of business earnings. Over 2016-2025 the fund's earnings per unit were simply the yearly change in its NAV: +$2.07, +$0.66, -$9.30, +$9.57, -$8.02, +$16.74, +$18.71, +$0.89, +$2.30 and -$1.17. That record is gasoline-price movement, not a business compounding: the median year added about $1.50 a unit and three of the ten years lost money. The one steady, evidenced income stream is interest on the collateral. In 2025 the fund earned a 4.01% yield on its average net assets against expenses of about 1.08% (a 0.60% management fee plus roughly 0.48% of other costs), leaving about 2.9% a year before any gain or loss on gasoline. Futures prices already reflect the market's expectation of future gasoline prices, so no case credits any gain or loss from gasoline itself, and no growth is credited in any case; forecasting the commodity would be speculation, not valuation. NAV was $61.77 per unit at December 31, 2025 and $102.56 at June 30, 2026, a 66% gain in six months that coincided with the surge in fuel prices after war with Iran broke out in early 2026 and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. News reports show the conflict was still active in September 2026. Our figures are anchored to the June 30, 2026 reported NAV. The fund's NAV moves with gasoline futures every trading day, so the sponsor's daily published NAV is the right yardstick for these values at any later date. Base case, $102.56: a unit is worth its reported net asset value. Collateral interest roughly offsets fees and the passage of time, and nothing else can be named. Bear case, $60: the war premium in gasoline futures unwinds (for example a ceasefire and reopened shipping lanes) and futures fall back to where they stood before the conflict, returning NAV to about its end-2025 level of $61.77, less about a year of fees and roll costs. That pre-war level is documented rather than guessed: NAV sat between $59.75 and $62.94 at every year-end from 2022 through 2025. Bull case, $106: the reported NAV plus about one year of net collateral income (roughly 4% yield less about 1.1% of expenses) while gasoline prices hold. We do not credit further escalation of the conflict or any other rise in gasoline prices, because a higher commodity price is a market outcome, not something the fund itself does. Other risks: when the futures curve is in contango (later months priced above the near month), every monthly roll loses money and NAV can erode even if spot gasoline is flat; in backwardation the roll helps. The fund is small, about $108 million of net assets at June 30, 2026 and as little as $29 million at the end of 2019, and the sponsor may close a fund whose assets become too small relative to its costs. A closure would return NAV to holders but could come at an unfavorable moment. In September 2026 the sponsor announced it is liquidating a different product, its Sustainable Commodity Strategy Fund; this fund was not affected. Exchange position limits can also constrain the fund in a crisis. Margin-of-safety price: because the units trade close to NAV, there is never a discount to value in the usual sense; a low price means gasoline futures are low. The margin-of-safety price is about $38, roughly 38% below the fund's 2022-2025 year-end NAV range and below the $41.04 NAV of end-2021, and it applies only while the futures curve is not in contango, so that rolling contracts is not steadily eroding value. The return implied from that level rests on NAV moving back to the pre-war range; there is no business growth behind it.