United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (BNO) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

The United States Brent Oil Fund, LP is a commodity pool that holds near-term Brent crude oil futures contracts (1,651 contracts at December 31, 2025) plus Treasuries and cash, aiming to track the daily percentage change in the price of Brent crude. It is not an operating business: it has no earnings power of its own beyond interest earned on its cash and Treasuries (about $3.9 million in 2025 on roughly $97 million of average net assets) and it charges a 0.75% management fee. Any return to a holder comes from movements in oil futures prices, which cannot be forecast from anything in the filings, so a discounted-cash-flow valuation does not apply. The fair value of a unit is its net asset value. At December 31, 2025 that was $28.29 per unit, down 6.14% over 2025 after a 10.04% gain in 2024 and a 3.08% loss in 2023. Because the fund's value moves with oil prices and each unit is worth its net assets at any moment, we show the same value for the bear, base and bull cases. Units are worth more than this only if oil rises, and less if it falls; the fund also bears a structural drag from fees and from the cost of rolling futures contracts when the futures curve slopes upward. Our estimate places no value above net asset value, and there is no discount at which we can identify a margin of safety, since there is no business producing owner earnings. The figure is the year-end 2025 net asset value; the current value will differ with oil prices since then.