SSR MINING INC. (SSRM) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

SSR Mining is a gold and silver producer with operations in Turkiye (Copler), Nevada (Marigold), Colorado (Cripple Creek & Victor, acquired from Newmont in February 2025), Saskatchewan (Seabee), and Argentina (Puna), plus a high-grade development project in Turkiye (Hod Maden) it is earning into alongside a local partner. The central fact shaping this valuation is the February 2024 incident at Copler, where a heap-leach pad failure led to a fatal landslide, suspension of all mining at the site, permanent closure of the heap-leach pad, and a still-pending process to win regulatory approval to restart the sulfide processing plant and a scaled-back oxide leaching operation. Copler contributed roughly 30% of production in 2023; it contributed nothing in 2025. The company is also defending securities class actions in the U.S. and Canada tied to the incident, continues to spend on care, maintenance and reclamation at the site, and is proceeding, cautiously, with the separate Hod Maden development project. We build our estimate of normal owner earnings (cash generated by the business after the reinvestment needed just to keep production steady, before any growth spending) from ten years of cash-flow statements. Because commodity earnings swing with gold and silver prices, and because Copler's loss and Cripple Creek's addition reshaped the company within the last two years, we anchor on the median of the last seven years of data (the years available in the filings), which spans a full price cycle, the strong 2020-2021 period, the weak 2022-2023 stretch, the 2024 Copler-incident trough, and the strong 2025 recovery. That median is about $1.40 of owner earnings per share, materially below 2025's roughly $2.13, reflecting the fact that recent results also benefited from elevated gold and silver prices and a one-time working-capital tailwind we do not expect to repeat every year. Our base case assumes Copler's sulfide plant wins restart approval and gradually ramps beginning around 2027-2028, with the oxide side resuming at reduced scale rather than the old heap-leach operation; Marigold, Cripple Creek, Seabee and Puna continue at roughly current levels, offsetting ore-grade decline with ongoing exploration, consistent with the company's multi-decade record at some of these sites; Hod Maden reaches a construction decision and begins contributing meaningfully around year 7-8; and the securities litigation resolves without a crippling settlement. On these assumptions we estimate the shares are worth roughly $30 today. Our bull case assumes a faster Copler restart, continued elevated gold and silver prices, Hod Maden arriving ahead of schedule, and reserve growth outrunning depletion at the legacy mines - worth roughly $56. Our bear case assumes Turkish authorities never grant Copler restart approval (leaving it a cost center until final closure), that this experience causes the company to pull back on further Turkish capital commitments so Hod Maden does not contribute within the next decade, that Marigold, Cripple Creek, Seabee and Puna's ore reserves are not fully replaced by exploration and gradually deplete, and that gold and silver prices give back some of their recent gains - worth roughly $5. This wide range reflects a real, largely binary regulatory and legal overhang rather than a lack of research. For the years beyond our ten-year forecast we did not assume the business simply continues forever at a flat rate. Mines have finite reserves. We modeled a gradual decline over the following decade as the legacy mines approach the end of their currently known reserves, moderated in the base and bull cases by Hod Maden, which is a high-grade, long-lived deposit expected to be the company's main source of value once the older mines are exhausted; the bear case fades toward zero because it assumes no Hod Maden contribution and no further Copler recovery. In the base case, roughly half of the estimated value comes from these long-run years, which is a meaningful share and worth keeping in mind - it depends on Hod Maden being built and on continued exploration success at the existing mines, not just on how Copler is resolved. One accounting point worth flagging: reported cash flow in 2024 and 2025 includes very large non-cash reclamation charges and impairments tied to Copler (roughly $297 million and $115 million respectively across the two years) and a 2025 stock-based compensation charge well above prior years. We added these back where appropriate (they are not ongoing cash costs) but did not simply erase Copler's economic loss from the estimate - instead, its absence (or partial, uncertain return) is carried through the multi-year growth assumptions and the three scenarios described above, which is where we believe that judgment belongs. The company had $535 million of cash and no debt drawn on its credit facility at the end of 2025, and remains in compliance with its financial covenants, so near-term liquidity is not a concern in any of our scenarios; the risk here is regulatory, legal and geological, not balance-sheet leverage.