Roivant Sciences Ltd. (ROIV) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Roivant Sciences is a holding company for a group of drug-development subsidiaries ("Vants"). It has no approved products and reported only $8.3 million of revenue in the year ended March 31, 2026. Its value today is mostly the cash and investments it holds, plus a pipeline whose outcomes have not yet been decided. The business consumes cash: net cash used in operations was $750.3 million in the latest year, $839.5 million the year before and $765.3 million the year before that, and the company also records $346.2 million a year of share-based pay, which we treat as a real cost. On our owner-earnings measure the business has lost between $1.19 and $1.89 per share every year since 2021 (most recently $1.81, a larger loss than the prior year's $1.46). A conventional earnings-based valuation therefore has nothing to capitalise, and the value rests on what the company owns. What it owns (March 31, 2026): $4.3 billion of cash and marketable securities and no borrowings on the balance sheet; a $770.2 million receivable from the March 2026 settlement of Genevant's patent suit against Moderna (Moderna owes $950 million on or before July 8, 2026, of which Genevant expects about $770 million after the split with Arbutus); and investments in Datavant ($233 million, a 9% stake valued with company models rather than a market price) and Arbutus ($175 million, 20%). Shareholders' equity attributable to Roivant was $4.53 billion, or $6.28 for each of the 720.4 million shares outstanding. Some of the cash sits in partly owned subsidiaries such as Immunovant and Priovant, and outside holders' share of that is already excluded from the $4.53 billion. Base case, $6.28 per share: the shares are worth about their attributable net assets. We give no separate value to brepocitinib or IMVT-1402, because neither has yet been approved or reported data that would support a sales figure. In return we do not deduct future research spending, which is the price of those same unvalued options. That offset rests on a track record: Roivant reports 8 FDA approvals since 2014 and 12 positive results in 14 large Phase 3 studies (including programmes now at other companies), and it received net proceeds of $5.2 billion when it sold Telavant to Roche in the year ended March 31, 2024. We treat research spending as investment that earns back roughly its cost, not as a permanent drain. Bear case, $4.34 per share: two more years of cash burn at the recent $750 million pace produce nothing of value. About $1.28 billion of that falls on Roivant's own shareholders (85.5% of it, the same proportion that shareholders' equity attributable to Roivant bears to total equity), and we also halve the Datavant stake (about $117 million), since its value is model-based and Datavant reported a $132.7 million net loss for calendar 2025. Burn is rising: cash used in operations was $270.5 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2026 against $204.4 million a year earlier. Immunovant has already dropped its first-generation antibody, batoclimab, which shows this kind of write-off happens. Bull case, $7.21 per share: base case plus the contingent Moderna payment. Moderna agreed to pay up to another $1.3 billion if the Federal Circuit rules in Genevant's and Arbutus's favour on Moderna's Section 1498 appeal. Genevant would receive 80% of that, and Roivant owns 64% of Genevant on a fully diluted basis, which is about $666 million or $0.92 per share, before any tax. A partial ruling would pay a prorated amount, and the payment can be clawed back in some circumstances. Left out on purpose: brepocitinib for dermatomyositis has positive Phase 3 results and FDA priority review with a decision due in the third quarter of calendar 2026. The filing estimates about 70,000 adult patients in the U.S. But there is no price or uptake evidence until launch, so the launch adds nothing to any case; it is the main upside not in our numbers. Also excluded are the Phase 3 uveitis data due in the second half of 2026 and the separate Genevant suit against Pfizer and BioNTech, whose outcome is unknown. What would make this wrong: the Datavant stake could be worth far more or less than its carrying value; the Moderna receivable is subject to adjustment for litigation costs; spending could keep rising without approvals. On the other side, an approval and successful launch would add value we have not counted. We could not confirm from the filings we used whether the July 2026 Moderna payment has been received.