$16.94
$68.14
bear $16.94
base $41.45
bull $68.14
margin of safety $24.00
market price* $75.44
RingCentral sells cloud business communications: phone service, team messaging, video meetings and contact-center software (RingEX, RingCentral Contact Center and related products), including a channel of reseller and carrier partners. About 96% of 2025 revenue ($2.43 billion of $2.52 billion) is subscriptions. Customers stay: the company reports that monthly dollar retention has held above 99% for five straight quarters, and annualized recurring subscriptions grew from $2.49 billion to $2.67 billion during 2025. How we measure earnings: we start from cash generated by operations, remove swings in receivables, payables and deferred revenue, and then deduct stock-based compensation as a real cost. Stock compensation is very large here. We also deduct the maintenance share of capital spending, meaning equipment plus capitalized software of about $87 million in 2025. We do not add back the amortization of acquired intangibles or the accounting write-downs that operating cash flow already reflects, and we do not adjust for them again. Sales commissions are treated as the cash cost they are, so the roughly $52 million by which 2025 cash commissions ($112 million) fell below their accounting amortization ($164 million) stays in the result. Interest is already in cash flow, so debt is not subtracted separately. Per share on that basis, owner earnings were roughly $(4.02) in 2020, $(3.64) in 2021, $(3.14) in 2022, $(0.60) in 2023, $1.41 in 2024 and $3.03 in 2025 (about $276 million). The early losses came from heavy stock compensation and the cash paid for sales commissions during the 2020-2022 growth push. We treat the business as it stands today, following the 2023 restructuring and the sharp fall in stock compensation ($427 million in 2023, $339 million in 2024, $270 million in 2025, and $112 million in the first half of 2026 versus $141 million a year earlier). The 2025 level is the anchor: about $276 million, or $3.19 per current share of roughly 86.6 million. A strict median of 2024 and 2025 would be lower, about $2.22 a share, but the first half of 2026 (about $187 million by the same method, versus roughly $116 million a year earlier) supports the 2025 level, so we used it. We did not lift the anchor above it. Share count has fallen from 95 million to 87 million through buybacks, and we do not credit future buybacks as growth. Growth check: owner earnings rose about 113% in 2025 as stock compensation fell. That is a step back to a normal level, not a growth rate to extrapolate. The base case assumes 3% in year 1, well below what was actually achieved. That rate is below the 5% revenue growth of 2025 and the more than 99% dollar retention. Nothing in the filings says the 2025 jump repeats. Base case, $41.45 per share: earnings start at about $284 million and grow 3% a year for five years, which is below the 5-9% annual revenue growth of 2023-2025. The business has grown revenue every year for over a decade, including through the 2022-23 downturn. After that we hold earnings flat to year 20, on the strength of the subscription base and retention, and then credit nothing further. Margin expansion, new AI products and market share gains are left out because they have not yet shown up in the numbers. Bear case, $16.94 per share: stock compensation drifts back toward the 2024 level ($339 million, up about $70 million from 2025), and interest rises when refinancing $1.26 billion of debt, of which $625 million falls due within a year. Earnings sit near $185 million, then slip 3% a year through year 15 as competition, including Microsoft Teams and bundled offers, erodes the base. Nothing is credited afterward. Reported growth in other revenue was already negative (-14% in 2025), which shows the pressure is real. Bull case, $68.14 per share: the first-half 2026 run-rate (about $360 million a year, backed by the falling stock compensation and revenue up 5.6%) is real, and earnings grow 4% a year for ten years, matching recent recurring-revenue growth of about 7%, then hold flat to year 25. What could make this wrong: stock compensation re-inflating, a difficult refinancing of the $625 million due in the next year, or subscription revenue turning down. The prior years' negative earnings show how much the outcome depends on that one line. We could not tie the first-half 2026 figures to a full quarterly narrative, only to the reported numbers, so that support is limited to the numbers, and we could not verify the status of the 2026 refinancing.