RELMADA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (RLMD) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Relmada Therapeutics is a clinical-stage drug developer with no product revenue. Its lead program, NDV-01, is a controlled-release bladder formulation of the chemotherapy drugs gemcitabine and docetaxel for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, in-licensed from Trigone Pharma in March 2025. It is in a single-arm Phase 2 study in Israel (48 patients had reached twelve-month data), with U.S. IND clearance and Phase 3 trial starts targeted for mid-2026 and first Phase 3 data at year-end 2026. A second program, sepranolone for Prader-Willi syndrome, is planned to enter Phase 2 in mid-2026. An earlier metabolic-disease program was terminated in May 2025. Owner earnings (cash from operations, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation) have been negative every year: roughly -$8.27 per share in 2021, -$4.88 in 2022, -$3.07 in 2023, -$2.64 in 2024 and -$1.42 in 2025 (about -$56 million in 2025). The losses are shrinking as stock compensation and spending fall, but the business has never earned a profit. All three cases are valued at $0 per share. Under our method, value comes only from earning power that is contracted, already demonstrated, or the output of a proven repeating process. Relmada has no approved product, no sales, no license income and no signed commercial contract. A promising Phase 2 result in a single-centre, single-arm study is not yet secured growth, and approval, launch and market share are all events that have not happened, so none enters any case. The bear case is likewise $0 rather than negative: the company carries no meaningful debt, so there is no obligation exceeding the business's worth. We also do not credit the cash raised (about $94 million in November 2025 and about $160 million in March 2026) as it is not an earnings stream; it funds the cost of the trials, and the shares' value depends on whether that spending produces something that earns. The company disclosed a going-concern warning in its 2024 financial statements. For 2025 management concluded that substantial doubt was alleviated after the 2025 and 2026 financings. It also received a Nasdaq minimum-bid-price notice in January 2025 and regained compliance in September 2025. What would make this wrong: if NDV-01 wins approval and reaches sales, the shares could be worth far more than $0. We consider that a real possibility but not one we can name evidence for today, so it is outside the valuation. Any value in the shares today rests on that outcome rather than on present earning power. The estimate would be revisited after positive Phase 3 data and a clear path to approval and revenue.